Monday 21 Sep 2020
Stocks plunge as fears grow over fresh coronavirus lockdowns - Financial Post.
European stock markets declined: The DAX -4.4%, CAC 40 -3.7%, FTSE 100 -3.4%.
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Resigns After Short-Seller’s Fraud Accusations - Nikola.
"It's Better Than The Stock Market": A Massive Bubble Is Forming In The Rare Plant Market - Zero Hedge.
Tens of thousands of Thai protesters call for a new constitution - WSWS. All countries need a new constitution.
Trump officials rush to make it tougher for skilled foreign workers to gain visas - Reuters.
Downward spiral continues in U.S. shale as 190 companies teeter on brink of bankruptcy - Financial Post.
Sunday 20 Sep 2020
On Twitter: Michael Burry, M.D. @michaeljburry: "#Tesla sales $25 billion, no EBIT, and market cap of $458 billion. Global auto industry ex-Tesla sales of $2.3 trillion, EBIT of $101 billion, and market cap of $835 billion. #Tesla is @ 19x sales, vs rest at @ 0.4x. #barronsonline: Saudi PIF backing @LucidMotors, out of @Tesla" table. Given the difficulty with getting car manufacturers to service a fuel car, an electric car that requires little service is a much better idea.
Can Dual Citizenship Save You From Socialism? - Youtube.
There is still plenty of value in junior gold explorers - Exploration Insights - Youtube.
Judge halts Trump administration order banning WeChat from Apple and Google app stores - CNBC.
German public sector unions prepare walkouts over pay - Reuters. The logical outcome of money supply increases "without causing inflation" 😉 😉.
From 30 Aug 2020: Why Birds Sing So Darn Early - Youtube. A lot of birds come together to sing at the same time. It seems likely that they are trying to divide territory. Birds find food by looking for other birds that have already found food. It is more efficient. Perhaps they're forming a search party to look for food.
Based on the assumption that governments seldom add money to an economy in a way that leads to growth, this chart tries to match US Gross Domestic Product divided by M3 Money Supply (blue) as real economic output with Total Vehicle Sales in red as physical evidence of economic growth. There were bigger deviations in the early 1980s, and the last decade. If the assumption is correct, vehicle sales for the 7 years was beyond what the economy could support, that is, bought with debt which must still be paid for.
Saturday 19 Sep 2020
Housing Market Update (September) - Youtube.
Wall Street demands still more Fed money - WSWS.
On Twitter: Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_: "U.S. debt has reached its highest level compared to the size of the economy since World War II and is projected to exceed it next year... THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN HISTORY IS COMING... "
Even more evidence the coronavirus spreads easily on long plane flights - Business Insider SA.
On Twitter: Science Is Fun(tastic) @sciencefunn: "I have a joke on time travel but you guys didnt like it".
Friday 18 Sep 2020
Walt Disney World Won’t Reopen Its Water Parks Until at Least March 2021- Travel + Leisure.
ON Twitter: Trevor Noren @trevornoren: "84% of S&P 500 assets are now intangibles" https://thedailyshot.com/2020/09/18/remote-schooling-is-taking-a-toll-on-the-economy/: chart.
New York yellow cab drivers block bridges to demand debt relief - WSWS.
New Zealand: Auckland University backs away from resuming classes after mass student opposition - WSWS.
Playboy puts its ears up for possible market return - Fox Business.
Watch Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston Virtually Reunite for Fast Times at Ridgemont High Read - EOnline. Why does Pitt look like a homeless person.
Reports: Trump Will Ban TikTok, WeChat Downloads Beginning Sunday - Forbes. People outside the US is used to "This service is not available in your region". Now the US is scoring an own goal.
From 7 Aug: Trump cutting off WeChat would be a devastating blow to some Chinese families in the U.S. - CNBC. "WeChat is the primary service people in the U.S. use to talk with friends and family in China, since U.S.-based apps are already banned there".
The FRED chart shows the gold price relative to the US M3 money supply. The gold price has recently risen sharply in sync with the money supply. The present ratio of 0.1 is about average for 50 years, except for brief periods of extreme volatility. The very high prices don't last, because mining production increases. The gold price is ultimately determined by gold mining costs, and the cost of mining increases with inflation as indicated by the money supply.
US imports (green) and exports (blue) relative to Gross Domestic Product (red), annualized values. Local products and services are the big expenses.
Thursday 17 Sep 2020
On Twitter: Stephanie Kelton @StephanieKelton: "Whoa. @SenSchumer and @SenWarren just dropped a resolution calling for executive action on federal student loan debt. Up to $50k cancelled by proclamation! https://warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Schumer%20Warren%20resolution.pdf" image.
Another 790,021 Americans file for unemployment as the fallout from COVID-19 lingers - USA Today.
If official numbers say inflation is virtually zero, why do so many of us feel otherwise? - Financial Post.
Trump repeats threats of post-election military repression as Barr calls for charging protesters with “sedition” - WSWS. Every politician should be forced to serve in the military as troops. That will quickly make an end to unnecessary military action and taxpayer expenditure.
House report on Boeing 737 Max crashes: Corporate criminality, FAA complicity, but no accountability - WSWS. Like a Roman or British empire, the lives of non-Americans are worthless. Iran Air Flight 655 - Wikipedia: 'In 1990, Rogers was awarded the Legion of Merit "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer [...] from April 1987 to May 1989" '.
Assange exposed “a very serious pattern of actual war crimes,” Daniel Ellsberg tells extradition hearing - WSWS.
‘Un-American’ Trump Ripped Over Coronavirus Blue State Death Toll Boast - Huffpost. The Democratic states include some of the most densely populated areas, which could explain that.
StockBeat: Recovery in Europe's Car Sales Spells Bad News for Automakers - Investing.
On Twitter: Tesla China @teslacn: "According to the latest vehicle registration data, Tesla becomes the top-selling car brand in Hong Kong with Model 3 as the best-selling passenger carTrophy, exceeding all private gasoline and electric vehicles combined in August. Thumbs up". There are only around 3000 car registrations per month, due to those vast open plains (Trading Economics).
Bolsonaro installs general as Brazil health minister - EWN. "Bolsonaro, a former army captain, now has 11 military officers in his 23-member cabinet".
Barbados to drop Queen Elizabeth II as head of state- ABC News. South Africa's Verwoerd died in the process.
Funny race horse names - The Graham Norton Show - BBC.
Wednesday 16 Sep 2020
On Twitter: Travis K @coloradotravis: "In solidarity with the Fed, I will be maintaining my policy of eating more until I'm taller. Hasn't worked yet, but it's just flat out true that on average, taller people eat more. The logic is basically flawless."
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Today: US Housing Market Index (measure of homebuilder sentiment) hit 83, a new all-time high. Also Today: Fed will continue to buy mortgage-backed securities ($40 billion/month) to drive down mortgage rates (already at record lows) & stimulate housing market. Chart: @ycharts" " chart. On a $300,000 loan over 30 year, montly payments decline form $1696 at a 4% interest rate, to $1372 at 2%, or $1097 at 0%. Repayment of the principle limits the benefit of lower interest rates. Savers and workers are wiped out by inflation. The government is going to end up printing money, and handing it out so people can build homes with it.
FOMC Signals Rates Unchanged Through At Least 2023 Despite GDP Forecast Upgrade - Talk Markets. This sounds very similar to authoritarian countries were future inflation is decided in advance.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "Today the Fed reiterated its commitment to making sure that the cost of living rises more substantially in the future to make up for the fact that it did not rise enough in the past. The #Fed is committed to helping consumers, by making everything they need to buy more expensive."
On Twitter: Beth Kindig @Beth_KindigL: "$SNOW is indicated to open trading at 70 x NTM revenue. In comparison, $ZM opened at 31x NTM revenue in its April '19 IPO, and peaked at 41x in its first month of trading. $CRWD began trading at 23x NTM revenue in its June '19 IPO, and hit a peak of 43x in its first month..."
On Twitter: Smalltalkdaily Research @smalltalkdaily: "Snowflake ❄ biggest IPO in software, 2nd biggest IPO this year & 5th biggest tech IPO ever. Look at the opening +125% now worth over US$70bn" ...
On Twitter: Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth: "If you liked buying Snowflake at $319 25 minutes ago, you’re going to love buying it at $240 right now."
China food security concerns prompt rethink of soybean expansion - SCMP.
The US dollar price of soybeans (blue) is not much higher than 30 years ago. Brazil and the US are the two big producers (Wikipedia). The Brazilian Real soybean price (red) does increase. US farmers are subsidized (Impacts of the U.S. subsidy to soybeans on World prices, production and exports - Scielo.br). US production works out to $313/ton x 123.66 million ton = $38.7 billion. The US subsidy Soybean Subsidies in the United States totaled $46.1 billion from 1995-2019 - Farm.ewg.org) was $2.48 billion in 2019, which is small compared to the soybean price. The conclusion is that farmers have increased efficiency.
Tuesday 15 Sep 2020
On Twitter: Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders: "We can no longer tolerate a system that allows a billionaire like Elon Musk to gain $10.3 billion in one day, while 30 million unemployed workers are denied $600 a week to pay the rent and put food on the table. We need an economy that works for all, not just the 1%. #TaxTheRich" Taxing the rich treats the symptoms, and not the cause. The primary solutions is to report the actual inflation rate, which will lead to higher interest rates, and fewer bubbles. The second is to end monopolies, subsidies and import restrictions which distort the free market.
Trump's tariffs violated global trade rules, WTO says - CNN.
How young blood might help reverse aging . Yes really - TED. Vampires stay young.
Electric Cars Are On A Roll In Europe, And It's Just The Beginning - InsideEVs. Petrol and diesel are still the big sellers: Statista.
Germany to regulate working from home - DailyFriend. The EU burocracy has regulations for everything, but no economic growth.
Monday 14 Sep 2020
Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore Reboot 50 First Dates for 2020 - Youtube.
On Twitter: Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_: "OH CANADA: Budget Deficit. 2020: C$380 Billion (projected). 2019: C$34 Billion. If this does not concern you and you are Canadian... I feel bad for you." Canada Government Budget Value - Trading Economics.
On Twitter: jeroen blokland @jsblokland: "Interesting and somewhat disturbing. The % of people earning more than their parents has collapsed... via @wef": chart.
Amazon Hires 100,000 Workers Ahead Of Holiday Season Amid Pandemic-Inspired E-Commerce Boom - Zero Hedge. Will the government give everybody a credit card?
How Spain Became A Squatter's Paradise - Zero Hedge.
China opens anti-subsidy probe on some U.S. glycol ethers imports - Reuters.
Op Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "Will Biden Agree To Rogan-Hosted 4-Hour Live Debate With Trump?" First the candidates will have to pass the Fear Factor challenge.
Aug 2020: How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments? - The National Bureau of Economic Research. "Most respondents report that they primarily saved or paid down debts with their transfers". That is one way for government to print money to replace debt.
Staff Pick: Why Are U.S. Cars Getting Older? - StLouisFed.
Some people actually believe official Real Gross Domestic Product (red) statistics. The good news is, Truck Tonnage (green) recovered to the same level relative to GDP as in March 2000 during the Dot-com bubble. The bad news is, Rail Freight Carloads (purple) have only declined. Perhaps they have lost clients to truckers. The drop in oil demand due to the lock-down would have contributed to the recent decline, but not the 2009 Great Recession. Total Vehicle Sales (blue) since Jan 1976 failed to confirm real GDP growth. If people were more prosperous, they would have bought new cars more often. The population is also 50% bigger.
According to Japan, inflation (red) has been flat for decades, shown here on two scales. With 1960 as intersecting starting point, the big increase in house prices had no effect on inflation. Even on a higher scale, the house price peak and decline is difficult to see.
Sunday 13 Sept 2020
Israeli Court Sentences Model Bar Refaeli for Tax Evasion - The Hollywood Reporter. The public are punished for not paying taxes so politicians can squander it, but politicians are above the law. Benjamin Netanyahu is still the prime minister despite: Trial of Benjamin Netanyahu - Wikipedia. "Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud"
On Twitter: FactSet @FactSet: "The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 27.2 is well above the 5-year average (20.3) and well above the 10-year average (17.9). https://bit.ly/32mR0w8": chart.
The Traveling Bird Feeder - Relax With Squirrels & Birds ( 1 Hour ) - Youtube. Not flying south for the winter then.
Kenworth launches two new electric trucks with up to 200 miles of range - Electrek.
Saturday 12 Sept 2020
Vitamin D, Large scale studies - Youtube.
Nvidia nears deal to buy chip designer Arm for more than $40 billion - sources - Reuters. Towards another monopoly.
Tesla Giga Berlin Construction Progress: September 12, 2020 - Inside EVs.
On Twitter: Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas: '5. Retail Options Buying... "CAUTION: Clean up in progress" h/t @sentimentrader $SPX $SPY': chart.
From 27 Aug: Ryan Epling @WSAZRyanEpling: "Before and after #Hurricane #Laura in Lake Charles, Louisiana #wx #louisiana #louisianawx #lakecharleslouisiana #wsaz": photo, photo. So high-rise buildings are not safe, at least not the glass. The concrete structure is. These hurricanes hit every year, but people still build structures that are not storm proof.
Japan's total debt to gross domestic product at 2.5x is lower than some other countries: USA 3.6x, Australia 5.7x, Canada 7.6x.
Japan's total debt (blue) is equal to the M3 money supply (red), which makes sense. It looks like other countries limit the measurement of money supply so as to report a lower inflation rate.
The UK total debt to GDP is at 3.74x.
Friday 11 Sept 2020
A Tiger Is Loose Around Knoxville, Tennessee — and No One Knows Why - Travel + Leisure. Can he play golf?
Venezuela Is Plucking Pieces Off Oil Pipelines to Sell as Scrap - Financial Post. Sounds familiar.
Junk-Bond Frenzy Set Records in August, as Everyone Tried to Front-Run the Fed - Wolf Street.
Nikola Denies Short-Seller’s Fraud Claims It Calls ‘Hit Job’ As Shares Fall Further - Forbes. Nikola’s (NKLA) house of cards crumbles as GM acts like nothing is happening - Electrek.
Chinese government reportedly would rather TikTok shut down than be sold - Engadget.
On Twitter: Victor Fernando R. Ocampo @VictorOcampo: "Friday fun fact: In 1974, Ramesses II was sent on a flight to Paris for preservation and maintenance work. But since French law required every person, living or dead to fly with a valid passport, Egypt was forced to issue a passport to the Pharaoh, 3,000 years after his death." image. If France issued him with an immigration visa, he could have received free medical services and a pension.
26.1 The HUGE Improvement in Unemployment is UN-REAL - Youtube.
On Twitter: Travel + Leisure @TravelLeisure: "Yellowstone Warns Visitors of Aggressive Bull Elks at the Start of Mating Season". Shareholders should also beware mating between the stock market and the US Fed.
On Twitter: Reuters Business @ReutersBiz: "Japan foreign minister says aims to reach broad agreement on UK trade deal Friday http://reut.rs/3k7M2JO": photo. There is a lot of expectation in that image. Will he pull up his pants, or not?
On Twitter: Reuters Business @ReutersBiz: "WATCH: 'There will be no extension of the TikTok deadline," said Trump, referring to the September 15 cutoff for ByteDance to sell the app's U.S. assets https://reut.rs/3bJXwAt". History books should preserve this line for posterity as illustration of the decline of the US civilization. The US president wants to protect user data from some idiotic website. The internet is likely to degenerate further in the future. The clock is ticking on TikTok and the US civilization.
The increase in Australian house prices (blue) is just an illusion compared to the way people have been impoverished by money printing (red), mate:
Australia's total debt (blue) is 5.7x Gross Domestic Product (purple). The other lines are money supply M3 (red) and house prices (green).
Thursday 10 Sept 2020
Ireland to reportedly order Facebook to stop sending EU user data to the U.S. - CNBC. Facebook EU should be sold.
On Twitter: Bloomberg @business: "Manhattan apartment listings soar, pushing vacancies to a record https://trib.al/jIQO16i" chart.
Huawei pitches its own operating system to third-party smartphone makers after Google ban - CNBC.
A Look At More Of The Latest New EV Listed Companies And Those That May IPO Soon - Seeking Alpha. In a world where free market development has been stifled by bigger government, vehicles is one sector experiencing a revolution.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Quite unsettling rise in total number of individuals claiming unemployment, which is up to 29.6 million—not so far off from recent peak of 32.4 million" chart.
The US Employment and Training Administration have their own statistics:
Wednesday 9 Sept 2020
On Twitter: John W. B. Rich (Wealthy) @richtechexec: "Tesla vs. Enron" chart. Enron traded energy options, which was a lot more risky that vehicle manufacture.
On Twitter: Julian Komar @BlogJulianKomar: "80% of all #traders lose money, 90% gave up before they make #money and it needs 7-10 years before they make money. The most newbies in #trading are too confident that they will make it in this business. It looks too easy, but it's very hard. Be humble and start small." If short term traders make money beyond nominal economic growth then long term savers (pensioners) must lose money.
Caffeine shot delivers wakeup call on antifungal drug resistance - Phys.org.
California’s raging wildfires: Bay Area skies turn an eerie orange - CNBC.
On Twitter: Lori Shemek, PhD @LoriShemek: "At around 8g per serving, peanuts have more hunger-satisfying protein than any other nut or legume, that helps stop hunger and cravings. And because they have a low glycemic index, they help stabilize your blood sugar to prevent the feeling of “crashing” later."
Tuesday 8 Sept 2020
David Rosenberg: Five signs that show this stock market is in a bubble - Financial Post.
On Twitter: Business Report @busrep: "Elon Musk’s net worth plunged $16.3 billion (R273.5bn) on Tuesday, the largest single-day wipeout in the history of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the Tesla rout continued."
On Twitter: Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact: "Here's a century of the total debt-to-M2 ratio, which includes public and private debts divided by the broad money supply": chart. Is money supply not being measured properly to avoid reporting the actual inflation rate?
On Twitter: Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact: "When rates hit zero, magic happens.": chart. When interest rates can't go any lower, more money is printed.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: " #COVID19 crisis has hurt those at bottom of earnings ladder ... top 1% still command double-digit share of national income & low-income households have lost most in wages since beginning of crisis @Bloomberg": chart. The bottom 50% has a lower share than after 1913. This is the result of low interest rates. The peasants are going to revolt. Powell could lose his head.
On Twitter: Phil_RX @Phil_RX: 'Right up to 27,5% before last week's "event" ^^ ':
.... ISABELNET: "Market Cap. This chart highlights the record concentration of market cap in the five largest stocks Right pointing backhand index https://isabelnet.com/?s=market+capitalization. h/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #tech #capitalization #growthstocks
#investing #sp500 $spx #spx $spy $rut #stocks #stockmarket": chart.
Investors cheer as GM, Nikola join forces to build electric trucks - Reuters. Again, fuel cells are a terrible idea: (1) Energy can't be stored downhill or when braking, (2) 95% of hydrogen are produced from fossil fuels (Wikipedia), (3) High cost of distributing hydrogen gas tanks, and (4) High cost of fuel cells.
Trump says he is willing to spend his own money to win re-election - Reuters. The desire of incumbents to extend the disaster their rule has been, is mind boggling. Debt has increased, trade is worse, the economy is declining, etc.
Tourist Fined $1,200 After Attempting to Steal Sand From Sardinia Beach - Travel & Leisure. Sardinian sand is a lot more valuable now.
The way some people promote the idea of deflation during recessions or depressions makes it sound like consumers will be better off. During recessions, real economic growth is negative, which means nominal economic output (blue) falls further than inflation (green). Wages fall with the economic output (blue). Consumers can afford less, so from their perspective prices have increased. It is equivalent to a rise in inflation.
According to this chart, the US has at times had economic growth of 5% or more. At 5% growth, it means your standard of living should be 4.3x higher than your parents 30 years ago (excluding population growth). That is highly unlikely.
Monday 7 Sept 2020
Socialism grows slowly, and then suddenly government spending shoots up to 55% of the economy. Whilst the private sector closes down due to the coronavirus, government workers are probably still being employed and paid. (FRED default color has turned black to mourn the demise of the free market).
Sunday 6 Sept 2020
Vitamin D, First clinical trial - Youtube.
On Twitter: Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact: "Broad money supply per capita growth YOY, vs CPI inflation YOY, over the past century": chart.
Novak Djokovic Disqualified From US Open - Ubitennis.net.
Saturday 5 Sept 2020
25.2 The Federal Reserve's Premature Blast Off? - Youtube.
From 16 Aug: 22.3 Learn why Low Rates are NOT Stimulative - Youtube.
Op Twitter: Alessio Urban @AlessioUrban: "Before every drop.. retail traders are all in" chart.
On Twitter: THE LONG VIEW Black circle @HayekAndKeynes: "A bad flu?" Weakly Deaths 1993-2020. Out of season can't be good.
Coronavirus: Arrests at Australia anti-lockdown protests - BBC News.
The FRED chart below shows the rate of change in the velocity of money supply. When it is positive it means more economic activity has resulted from the same amount of money flowing through the economy. If an increase in the money supply causes mostly inflation, then a negative value signifies a shrinking economy. It should coincide with the grey recession bands. The line has been mostly negative since 2000, meaning the economy has mostly declined. According to this some recessions were not reported. Around 1970 and 1975 the reported recessions were out of step with a drop in the chart. It looks unlikely that the US economy will recover to any sustained growth from the last tumble.
Friday 4 Sept 2020
Etsy gets into S&P 500, Tesla does not - Fox Business. "With a market capitalization over $370 billion, Tesla is one of the most valuable companies on Wall Street". Etsy, Teradyne and Catalent have a combined stock market value of about $40 billion." Revenue (profit) in 2019: Tesla (TSLA) $24,578M (-$862M), Etsy (ETSY) $818M ($96M), Teradyne (TER) $2295M ($467M), Catalent (CTLT) $3,094M ($220M).
The S&P 500 index has shot beyond the top range of a megaphone pattern, but has not pulled back inside the pattern (Bigcharts).
State of emergency declared as California faces historic heat, possible power outages - LA Times.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Tesla down over 25% from its high 3 days ago... $TSLA".
On Twitter: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1: "Apple shares have fallen more than 15% in the past three days, the biggest three-day move since 2015. They're still up 56% year to date."
A majority of young adults in the U.S. live with their parents for the first time since the Great Depression - Pew Research Center.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "Of the 1.371 million people who returned to work in Aug., 344,000 or 25% of them took government jobs. Since most of these jobs are non-productive, the cost of employing these workers is actually a drag on the economy, as it drains resources away from more productive private use."
On Twitter: Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact: "Lots of folks (and algos) are focusing on the headline payroll number today, which was slightly better. However, a big surge in government census workers was responsible for much of that outperformance. Private payrolls were rather stagnant.": text.
On Twitter: St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed: U.S. labor force participation rate—the share of the population that is either working or actively looking for work—rose to 61.7% in August, which is 1.5 percentage points above April’s pandemic-period low of 60.2% http://ow.ly/XnaU50BiirY": chart
The good news is, the number of US workers (blue) has recovered. The bad news is total US debt per worker (red) is likely to shoot higher when data is updated. In Q1 it was $510,860 per worker. Workers are the only ones who can pay for debt. Not only do they have to pay their own debt, they have to pay for government debt through taxes, and corporate debt and taxes by working.
Thursday 3 Sept 2020
On Twitter: Wilshire 5000 @W5000: "Wilshire 5000 Plummets $1.4 Trillion; 8th All-Time Worst Point Drop on the Day".
Op Twitter: Spencer Schiff @SchiffSpencer: "Taxation is theft, and is therefore unjust. That statement is unconditional, absolute, and universally true. Regardless of the ends toward which the expropriated funds are channeled (including the ostensible benefit of the victims), coercion is the method of acquisition." Government Spending - Our World in Data: "In the US, for example, total government expenditure accounted for less than 2% of national income until 1916."
U.S. court: Mass surveillance program exposed by Snowden was illegal - Reuters.
Gold is your protection in an economic war on savers – Rick Rule - Kitco. "Negative interest rates ... are a war on savers, by spenders".
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Total number of individuals claiming some form of unemployment increased to 29.2 million vs. 27 million in prior week": chart.
On Twitter: SentimenTrader @sentimentrader: "Speculative options trading reached the equivalent of 12% of NYSE volume last week. Like some combustible combo of musical chairs, Russian roulette, and five finger fillet. How many traders can dance upon the head of a pin?": chart.
On Twitter: John P. Hussman @hussmanjp: "3/ ... and as I note my my latest monthly comment, the rabid speculation in hypervalued large-cap glamour stocks recapitulates what we observed in 2000.": chart. The big companies are mostly monopolies with limited competition. Investing in them does make sense, but even they can't grow beyond a certain market share in a weakening economy. Consumers run out of money.
Volta Zero Electric Truck Revealed - Inside EVs.
China: Wuling Sold 15,000 Hong Guang MINI EV In August! - Inside EVs.
Dozens of baby crocs hitch a ride on dad - Getaway.
On Twitter: Cristina Dragani @CristinaDragani: "It pains me to see that, unfortunately, the #stress associated with the #virus has affected the #mentalhealth of many people, including some eminent doctors.": Wear a mask while having sex, Canada's top doctor suggests - Reuters. If you're not attractive, it could help.
US exports to China relative to money in circulation (red) has declined despite Trump's one-sided trade deal. Imports from China (blue) drop in March of every year. It has declined the last few years. If China imports give any indication of US consumer demand, it is now weaker than during the Great Recession.
The Japanese Yen/$ (blue) hasn't done much for decades, but has strengthened from ¥360/$ to ¥105/$ over the period of the chart. Since 1995 the US has printed more money (red).
The S&P 500 have shot up beyond the megaphone resistance line. The economy will require a lot more debt to keep going. It is not clear why US total debt (blue) is so much more than the money supply (red). One would assume that in the future the debt will find its way into the economy, causing massive inflation.
FRED has a food inflation chart back to 1914. Food prices decline around recessions. A big fall was during the Great Depression. Lower prices force some suppliers out of the market. When demand recovers, insufficient supply lifts prices.
Wednesday 2 Sept 2020
Asphalt roads make city air pollution worse in summer, study finds - The Guardian.
Inflammation linked to Alzheimer's disease development - Science Daily.
Robinhood Faces SEC Fraud Investigation: Report - The Street.
GameStop Defies the Odds. - The Street.
Fed's Mester says central bank won't let inflation run rampant - Reuters. Governments choose the inflation rate. How will the Fed control the government's decision?
On Twitter: Paul Sperry @paulsperry_: "BREAKING: CNN shut out of presidential debates for first time in 12 years ostensibly due to the cable network's overtly anti-Trump bias". When last did the presidential debate lead to competent government?
There will be a lot of shareholders in stocks that have shot up vertically, who will take profit when the share price starts to fall.
Alison Moyet performs 'Only You' Live at The Burberry S/S16 Womenswear Show - Youtube. Forget about the problems, and join high society.
Tuesday 1 Sept 2020
Can the Fed Support Asset Prices Forever? - Analyzing the Technical Indicators (w/ Milton Berg) - Youtube.
Honeybee venom kills aggressive and resistant breast cancer cells - ZME Science.
All Wrapped In One - The Irrelevant Investor.
Trump vows to help struggling U.S. airlines - Reuters. Translation: Poor people who don't fly will pay for it through inflation.
Trump moves to ban evictions nationwide through December - Politico. Just like Newton's third law of motion (for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction), a new generation will now learn not to buy properties to let, and scarcity will drive up rentals.
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "The Fed owns 1/3 of all the U.S. mortgage-backed securities that exist. At its current pace of buying in about a year the Fed will own the entire mortgaged-backed market. The Fed provides the financing and the government provides the guarantees. Socialism created this bubble." The logical outcome of trying to keep the economy going with more debt, is that government takes over all debt (to keep interest rates low), and then dilutes the currency.
McDonald's discriminates against Black franchisees, lawsuit claims - Reuters.
The S&P 500 has risen to the top resistance line of a megaphone formation. The bottom support line is -37% down.
On Twitter: Mark B. Spiegel @markbspiegel: "I have no $AAPL position (except via our $QQQ short hedge) but can someone explain why (fundamentally speaking) a market cap that- in the last 5 yrs- is up 240% on a total earnings increase of 10% is up more today on projected FLAT iPhone sales?" Flat sales seems optimistic.
Match Game 75 (Episode 553) (Schnick Schnack) - Youtube.
Lyrebird: The Best Songbird Ever! - Youtube.
Attenborough: the amazing Lyre Bird sings like a chainsaw! Now in high quality | BBC Earth - Youtube.
Monday 31 August 2020
On Twitter: Phil Argue @PhilArgue: "In 1999, the Fed raised rates by 2%, killing the tech bubble. Between 2004-2006, the Fed raised rates 4%, ultimately killing the housing bubble. Today, valuations are near tech bubble levels, but the Fed is doubling down on low rates. Can a bubble burst w/o the Fed poking it?" chart. That is the big question. Each time the debt problem was solved by increasing debt more, by lowering interest rates after the collapse, thereby making the situation worse than before. It is ultimately workers who pay for the debt through lower real wages. It is up to the workers to change the government.
Tesla, the Triple-WTF Chart of the Year: Just Put Your Brain on Tesla Autopilot and Believe in It - Wolf Street. Either Tesla will become an autopilot monopoly and the share price stay high, or the share price will collapse.
Neurons protect themselves from degeneration by adapting their metabolism - Medical Xpress.
Match Game 74 (Episode 280) (With Slate) ("Janet's Record Win!") (GOLD STAR EPISODE) - Youtube.
From 07 Aug 2020: The Government is Literally STEALING Homes - Youtube. Capital gains tax is also a way to confiscate part of a home, through the government created inflation. The higher inflation, the bigger the percentage over time.
Some people believe the government statistics that claim there is no inflation because the velocity of money flow (blue) has slowed down. In June 2020 US citizens (for example) had 3.6x more dollars than in July 1997 (red). If they spent 100% of their money per year in 1997, they now only spend 50% of their money (blue). What are they doing with the other 50%? If they leave it in a bank account, banks have to lend out the deposits they receive to generate income, so the borrowers would spend the money. It is more likely that people are spending more slowly because they have less income (green). Since 1997 wages (green) have declined relative to money supply (red), and are now about 50% of what it was in 1997.
This doesn't reveal the inflation rate. Wages increased some 1.8x including inflation. The most likely scenario is that inflation corresponds to the money supply growth of 3.6x (5.7% per year), and real economic growth or real wage growth declined to 50% (-3% per year).
Sunday 30 August 2020
On Twitter: Alessio Urban @AlessioUrban: "Trade wars are easy to win": chart, chart, chart.
On Twitter: Vital Vegas @VitalVegas: "Hey, @ElonMusk, several of these individuals have expressed interest in your new underground transportation system. FYI.": Las Vegas Review-Journal @reviewjournal: "Traffic is backed up for 10 miles on the way out of Las Vegas to California on Sunday afternoon. https://reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/big-traffic-causes-backup-on-i-15-at-california-nevada-border-2108399/". If there a problem with the single lane traffic in the tunnel, commuters will be stuck in a tunnel. How do you get a tow truck into a tunnel? Wikipedia: "These trips were planned to be implemented by placing a car on an electric sled and traveling at 120 miles per hour (200 km/h) through tunnels." "By June 2019, the company paved the tunnel roadway with asphalt, smoothed the surface, added guide-way for autonomous vehicle operation, and were testing car runs (without a skate) through the mile-long tunnel at speeds of 90 mph (140 km/h) for autonomous control and up to 116 mph (187 km/h) with human control."
Saturday 29 August 2020
Since the total US debt exceeds the Wilshire 5000 Full Cap stock market index (blue), how about comparing it with just some of the debt, here shown with corporate debt + federal government debt (red):
Friday 28 August 2020
Fed Insider Reveals The Feds End Game | Danielle DiMartino Booth - Youtube.
Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020 - Crescat Capital.
On Twitter: squawksquare @squawksquare: "People have to remember that it's much easier to short $TSLA at $400 than it is at $2,300. Next week split could present an opportunity for shorts to re-enter their positions just as it presents opportunity for retail to buy it cheaper. Works both ways." There are probably people who don't know the stock was split (or don't what it means), and buy because it is cheaper. Profits are irrelevant.
Japan automakers post 12% slide in July global vehicle sales - Reuters.
It does help if everything is on the same scale. Below is the US total debt in red up to Q1 2020, the Wilshire 5000 Full Cap Price Index in purple, the Nasdaq 100 Index in blue, and the Federal Reserve Total Assets in green. The slope of first two appears similar since 2009, meaning an increase in debt could have gone into the stock market. The latter two appear to have similar increases since 2009.
Thursday 27 August 2020
Seasonality in food prices: A bountiful harvest of FRED data - FRED.
Hydroxychloroquine, evidence of efficacy - Youtube.
Chegg and two other online-learning stocks may be the best ways to play educational shift - CNBC. Distance learning has been available for 50 years.
Inflation targeting by the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) is meaningless when the government decides what that inflation is. The Fed is basically saying interest rates will be increased when the poor peasants start a revolution.
Op Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "Microsoft Could Announce Deal To Buy TikTok Within 48 Hours" This will be the end of TikTok. Constant software updates will be required. Every new version will be worse than the previous.
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Biggest experiment in monetary history: Central banks are almost engaged in a battle over who can rumble their printing presses the loudest. SNB and Bank of Japan lead the race." chart. The motivation is to keep interest rates artificially low.
The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited - Journal of Economic Perspectives:
...."It is easy to understand the presumption that a credit expansion fueled the stock market boom by looking at Figure 4. This graphs an index of the New York Stock Exchange's brokers' loans and an index of stock prices. These two indices are almost indistinguishable, especially for the period of the boom."
...."The Federal Reserve had always been concerned about excessive credit for speculation." Not today. Let's make the bubble bigger.
...."Commercial banks did purchase more bonds, but they could not legally trade or acquire equities. To circumvent this restriction, they set up wholly-owned securities affiliates, which permitted them to enter all aspects of investment banking and the brokerage business. Peach (1941) found that the number of affiliates grew rapidly from 10 in 1922 to 114 in 1931."
...." many small investors might still have shied away from buying securities, lacking sufficient capital to purchase a diversified portfolio of stocks. This
obstacle was eliminated by the investment trusts .... investment trusts grew from about 40 in 1921 to over 750 in 1929."
.... "The economy had been in a recession until late 1927. When business picked up, the stock market responded. General Motors was attractive because Ford (still a private company) had shut down to retool for the Model A. With its more advanced management and organization, GM was able to take advantage of this opportunity, increasing production and sales and seizing the leading position in the industry. At the end of the month, GM's president predicted its price would rise from 180 to 225, and he promised to return to stockholders 60 percent of earnings." Like Tesla.
.... "The other stock that dominated the New York Exchange was RCA, the purveyor of a new technology. RCA's sales were growing by 50 percent each year." Like Apple.
The Nasdaq 100 does at times show remarkable agreement with the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet. During the previous two recessions the Nasdaq went down. Now it is going up.
From Jan 2020: Revealing The Anomalies Of Ancient Egyptian History - Youtube.
Wednesday 26 August 2020
‘I’ve never had to think about my own safety in this way before’: Shaken by summer looting in affluent neighborhoods, some Chicagoans are moving away. - Chicago Tribune.
Daily number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints in the United States from March 2019 to August 2020 - Statisca. The number of passengers is slowly recovering, but looks like it might not return to previous levels for years.
Keanu Reeves & Alex Winter Credit The Fans For Getting "Bill & Ted Face The Music" Made - Youtube.
On Twitter: Trevor Noren @trevornoren: "The US market cap/GDP ratio https://thedailyshot.com/2020/08/26/confidence-among-younger-americans-tumbles-after-the-loss-of-government-benefits/": chart.
It is always entertaining to look at the stock market before the 1930s crash started on 24 Oct 1929, and continued for 3 years, because history repeats itself.
What Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1929? - History: "The Dow increased six-fold from August 1921 to September 1929, leading economists such as Irving Fisher to conclude, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” .... That same sense of reckless overconfidence extended to average consumers and small investors, too, leading to an “asset bubble.” .... During the 1920s, there was a rapid growth in bank credit and easily acquired loans. People encouraged by the market’s stability were unafraid of debt."
Stock market crash of 1929 - Britannica: "Any warnings of the precarious foundations of this financial house of cards went unheeded. .... Prices began to decline in September and early October, but speculation continued, fueled in many cases by individuals who had borrowed money to buy shares—a practice that could be sustained only as long as stock prices continued rising. .... President Hoover and Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon led the way with optimistic predictions that business was “fundamentally sound” and that a great revival of prosperity was “just around the corner.” "
Tuesday 25 August 2020
One airline stock is ‘simply the best’ once air travel demand normalizes, trader says - CNBC.
“Pent-up Supply” in San Francisco Turns into Record Glut of Houses & Condos for Sale. Prices Weaken - Wolf Street.
On Twitter: Alastair Williamson @StockBoardAsset: "consumer confidence plunges, stocks ATHs - this won't end well": chart.
Fake golf equipment raids across China result in multiple arrests, 120,000 items seized - SCMP.
On Twitter: TexasByChoice @4_trading: "Exactly! The 2014-15 flu seasonal vaccine was only 19% effective. source: CDC": chart.
CNN Fact-Checker Calls Out The RNC As A ‘Parade Of Dishonesty’ - Huffpost.
Ford starts construction on new factory for electric F-150 pickup truck - Electrek.
Some people can't believe that the US dollar would weaken despite the 24% increase in money supply. The FRED chart below compares the money supply ratio for the € and $ in red, with the exchange rate in blue. Exchange rates are determined by the inflation differential, but in the absence of reliable inflation statistics that is all we have. Increased money supply seldom leads to economic growth, which only leaves inflation. The exchange rate deviates substantially and for long periods from the money supply ratio, but does eventually return to intersect. So, around 1985 the € tumbled, but the money supply ratio remained the same, and the € recovered. Since 2008 the US has created more money, but the $ strengthened.
Monday 24 August 2020
On Twitter: Dougie Kass @DougKass "Only seven years ago Exxon was the world's largest company. Today it was kicked out of the DJIA."
The CumEx fraud in Germany: Organised crime with government support - WSWS.
TikTok to sue Trump administration, calls ban unconstitutional - LA Times.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Stock ownership increasingly concentrated among small share of population; top 10% of earners owned 87% of all U.S. stocks in 1Q 2020—up from 82.4% in 2009—while bottom 50% owns just a sliver @WSJ @federalreserve": chart.
‘The housing market is on a sugar high’: Home sales are soaring, but is it a good time to buy? Here’s what the experts say - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts: "Pretty amazing the speed at which companies are filing for #bankruptcy":
Defaults in China’s US$4.1 trillion corporate bond market could hit record high this year as recovery remains fragile - SCMP.
Hundreds of thousands displaced, six dead as 600 fires rip across California - WSWS.
Doris Day TONIGHT SHOW - Youtube. She was called D Day before D Day.
Sunday 23 August 2020
Covid-19 Coronavirus Can Survive On Frozen Meat And Fish For Up To 3 Weeks, Study Finds - Forbes.
There are reports that most people in some locations have antibodies for COVID-19, and are therefore immune. A Google search on the subject returns:
On every page as advert, from 24 April 2020: "Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19 - WHO.
From 21 Aug 2020: Coronavirus: 11 per cent Pakistanis have developed protective immunity against COVID-19, says study - Financial Express.
From 21 Aug 2020: Survey of India’s 9th-largest city finds COVID antibodies in 52% of the population - Fortune.
From 20 Aug 2020: 29% of Delhi has antibodies for Covid-19: Second sero-survey - HindustanTimes.
From 20 Aug 2020: NYC Releases Largest And Most Detailed Coronavirus Antibody Testing Data To Date - Gothamist.
From 19 Aug 2020: One-third of Bronx test subjects have coronavirus antibodies - The Hill.
From 7 Jul 2020: Only 5% of the Spanish Population Found To Have Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 - TechnologyNetworks.
Saturday 22 August 2020
Op Twitter: Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman: "The 2018 statistics on the activities of US multinationals are out! US firms booked 52% of their foreign profit in tax havens, essentially stable relative to 2017. No evidence of an effect of the Trump tax reform.": chart.
Housing Market - Has The Housing Crash Started?! - Youtube.
Manchester United captain Harry Maguire arrested in Greece - SCMP. "World’s most expensive defender arrested following a late-night incident on the party island of Mykonos". Finally some excitement in the world of soccer.
Friday 21 August 2020
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "With 95% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings are down 50% over the last year, S&P 500 Sales down 11%. $SPX": chart.
On Twitter: Bespoke @bespokeinvest: "Since they announced their stock splits in the last month, Apple is up 29% and Tesla is up 53%".
Valuation Puzzle - Jereonblokland.
Apple Threatened by WeChat Ban - The Street.
Tesla (TSLA) could make 1.5m cars per year when the German factory is at phase 3. At a 5% net profit margin on a $35,000 car, the profit would be $2.65B. Tesla's market cap of $388B would be a price/earnings of 148. The biggest seller in 2019 was General Motors with 2.9m vehicles (Automobilemag). Their profit was $6.73B, net profit margin was 4.8% in 2019, and price/earnings $28.6/$4.57 = 6.3.
President no more? A US bill would ban the title for China’s leader - SCMP.
Coronavirus: Vietnamese men accused of scamming 5,000 US buyers looking for PPE - SCMP.
Lori Loughlin sentenced to 2 months in prison in college admissions scam. Her husband, Mossimo Giannulli, got 5 months - CNN. The bribery by politicians of voters is about a billion times bigger, using other people's money.
The Postmaster Has a Sudden Change of Tune on Mail-In Voting - The Street. Secret voting could be done on the internet using two independent websites: one for registration, and issuance of a seemingly random but valid code; and a second for submitting the vote. Explainer: Fraud is rare in U.S. mail-in voting. Here are the methods that prevent it - Reuters: "States also require voters to sign the outside of their envelope, which they match to a signature on file" - not a secret vote.
Visitors to Iceland Will Now Have to Get Tested for COVID-19 Twice, and Quarantine in Between - Travel + Leisure. Who wants to visit a place called iceland?
Thursday 20 August 2020
On Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta: "Who would have thought…... Used car prices are the new Nasdaq..…. That’s with:
- Delinquency rates surging
- 10% unemployment rate
- Auto sales still 20+% below its 2017 highs.
We are living in a bizarre “free money” world.": chart. There appears to be another discrepancy with official inflation. Used car buyers should ask the government about these special offers they are able to find:
Amazon workers describe spread of COVID-19 at warehouse in Romulus, Michigan - WSWS.
GM-backed $4,000 mini electric car has already received 50,000 orders - Electrek.
Alibaba sales soar but US crackdown may be looming - CNN.
Rent increase, evictions banned in Victoria as state records 240 infections overnight - News.com.au. Who wants to invest in this wonderful free market economy?
China responds to controversy over picture of ambassador walking on Kiribati locals - News.com.au.
Canada's M3 money supply in red has shot up, but has done little for economic growth in blue, or inflation according to the government. That doesn't make sense. What seems more likely is that people are paying so much more for items like housing, that they have less money left over for the goods that are recorded as part of the gross domestic product. Debt in green appears to be 7.6x GDP.
Wednesday 19 August 2020
On Twitter: Vincent Deluard @VincentDeluard: "CRAZY STAT OF THE DAY (and maybe the month). Nasdaq 100 companies paid $20 bn in stock-based comp last quarter from earnings of $78 bn. 26% of earnings are siphoned by insiders versus 10% in 2010. --> Bubbles are always a transfer of wealth from the public to insiders.": chart. Stock-based incentives are like being the first investors in a Ponzi scheme. After small investors are sucked in, the insiders sell.
Study finds cancer-boosting culprit that multiplies with age - MedicalXpress.
In act of high seas piracy, US hijacks Iranian oil bound for Venezuela - WSWS.
On Twitter: zerohedge @zerohedge: "It took AAPL 38 years to hit its first trillion market cap since its split-adjusted IPO of $0.39 on Dec 12, 1980; It took just over two years to hit the second trillion": chart. Typical unsustainable vertical movement. Will they be another BlackBerry in 10 years time?
BlackBerry phones are back, baby - Engadget.
Truck Tonnage in blue represents real economic growth. When you add inflation, you get Gross Domestic Product in green. The stock market level in red is based on the dillusional idea that you can create wealth without products, like a Ponzi scheme.
FRED has Earnings Yield from 1871 to 1968 in two charts, in blue and red. Corporate Profits divided by the Wilshire Full Cap stock market index on an arbitrarily scale is shown in green:
Boston’s 'Cheers' Replica Bar Is Closing Down - Travel + Leisure.
Tuesday 18 August 2020
Woman at Center of Ron Meyer's NBCU Exit Is Actress Charlotte Kirk - Hollywood Reporter. Contact her if you want to get rid of management.
On Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta: "Oops. S&P 500 earnings real yield is at its lowest level in a decade! Prior lows were also times that gold outperformed equities. What’s different this time? Stocks have never been at record highs with fundamentals severely depressed. Never. ": chart.
The stock market in blue now has two reasons to fall: (1) the economy in red is declining, and
(2) profit yield in blue (arbitrary scale) is far too low relative to inflation as indicated by money supply growth in red. The blue yield curve has probably been below the red inflation curve for some time.
Monday 17 August 2020
Can The FED Solve The 2020 Financial Crisis with Danielle DiMartino Booth - EP6 - Youtube.
The S&P 500 has now made a double peak, equal to the February level.
On Twitter: John P. Hussman @hussmanjp: "One of the things to remember about investing is that the higher the price today, for a given stream of future cash flows, the lower the long-term returns you can expect. It's exactly when past returns are most glorious that future prospects are most dismal. Congratulations. chart. When people don't own a stock that goes up, they feel they are losing out. The paper wealth that is created on US stock markets can't be converted into actual products and services.
On Twitter: Amy Mek @AmyMek: "New Zealand Socialist PM Jacinda Ardern announces Postponement Of National Elections due to a supposed Corona Outbreak. Days ago her gov't announced anyone testing positive for Corona & their family will be sent to Quarantine camps - anyone who doesn't comply will be detained": video.
US Electronic Shopping and Mail-order Houses in blue compared to Advance Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services in red.
US Retail Sales: Retail and Food Services x12 compared to economic output has remained around 30%:
Sunday 16 August 2020
Yinon Weiss @yinonw: "A short thread about covid herd immunity. First let's look at New York & Sweden. NY wears masks, closed business, closed schools, and mandates social distancing. Sweden did not but both reached near zero deaths at the same time. Only thing in common is similar antibody levels." chart.
Driving VW's first all-new electric car - what is the Volkswagen ID.3 really like? // Jonny Smith - Youtube.
Saturday 15 August 2020
When you look at retail sales you have to take in account the real value of the dollars. Below is US retail sales in blue, and retail sales relative to the money in circulation in red. The decline in the latter could be due to increased wealth, and more spending on other items, but seems unlikely since the biggest falls occur during recessions. Workers/consumers are being impoverished, in favour of asset bubbles.
From 21 July 2020: Is Hydroxychloroquine Effective Against Coronavirus? - Plata.
Friday 14 August 2020
On Twitter: Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff: "California proposed a .4% annual wealth tax that applies to former residents who already left within the past 10 years, and to current residents for ten years after they leave. The rate is reduced by 10% for each year of absence. Any wealthy person who moves into Cal. is nuts." In principle an asset tax would make an economy more efficient by encouraging people to invest in assets that generate an income like a factory instead of a mansion.
Buffett's Berkshire buys gold miner Barrick, slashes Wells Fargo and JPMorgan, dumps Goldman stake amid coronavirus - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Quoth the Raven @QTRResearch: “[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” - Warren Buffett. Usually a minor percentage of the gold is stored (Statista).
If you sold you stocks (blue) in 2000 and bought gold (red) you would have done well:
Some people use Sweden as example of how the coronavirus could be eliminated without lockdowns. What is strange about Sweden's statistics is that deaths peaked middle April, one month after cases started. The cases were much higher in June, but deaths continued to decline. Other countries show a similar pattern. Perhaps due to increased testing amongst healthy people, or treatment with drugs, or vitamin D, or a different strain of the virus:
From 5 Aug: Breaking News! COVID-19 Mutation: Swedish and Brazilian researchers detect SARS-CoV-2 strain with novel major mutation of spike protein - Thailand Medical. "The research also found that of the four near-complete genomes assembled from infected patients, three belonged to the one of the genetic groups that the Public Health Agency in Sweden had previously reported as having declined by late April."
Total cases in Sweden was 83,852 yesterday. If at least 10x more people were infected, but not tested because they had no symptoms, then more than 1 million could have been infected, out of a population of 10 million.
From 13 Aug: Sweden's COVID Policy Didn't Create Herd Immunity - Webmd.
Thursday 13 August 2020
On Twitter: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta: "Credit exhaustion. China’s M2 money supply seem to be hitting a wall. During post 08’ crisis, credit was growing 3x its current pace! The consequences of over indebteness in the system. Difficult to see a strong revamp in global growth in such a scenario.": chart.
UK's First Socially Distanced Concert Has Fans Sitting In Metal Boxes - Zero Hedge.
U.S. leaves tariffs on Airbus aircraft unchanged at 15% - Reuters.
On Twitter: Live Science @LiveScience: "NASA to stop using racist nicknames for cosmic objects http://dlvr.it/RdZ8CH" Black holes will be called affirmative action holes.
Wednesday 12 August 2020
Coronavirus: Exposure rate 'similar' in London and Stockholm - BBC. Perhaps Sweden is just too cold for people to go out as much.
On Twitter: Breaking911 @Breaking911: HARRIS: "Trump is the reason millions of Americans are now unemployed. He inherited the longest economic expansion in history from Barack Obama and Joe Biden. And then, like everything else he inherited, he ran it straight into the ground." Based on all the bankruptcies, there is a lot of truth to her statement.
Here are lessons from two ‘10-bagger’ investments by a fund that’s doubled in value this year - Market Watch. "The U.K. reported a 20.4% drop in quarterly gross domestic product in the April-to-June period, the worst performance of any major economy during that time period". Not to worry, the government will print more money to pay for social benefits.
Mexico's new warning labels on junk food meet supersized opposition from U.S., EU - Reuters.
Trump’s ‘Completely Berserk’ Sean Hannity Interview Gets The Treatment On Twitter - HuffPost.
Qatar 2022: Covid-19 forces AFC to call off World Cup Qualifiers for rest of 2020 - SCMP. What are the mindless zombies going to do now instead of watching a ball being kicked around?
From 19 Sep 2019: This Harvard Professor Explains the Secret to Aging in Reverse | David Sinclair on Health Theory - Youtube.
Tuesday 11 August 2020
On Twitter: Joe Biden @JoeBiden: "Back when Kamala was Attorney General, she worked closely with Beau. I watched as they took on the big banks, lifted up working people, and protected women and kids from abuse. I was proud then, and I'm proud now to have her as my partner in this campaign." Will Meade @realwillmeade: "This means short everything tomorrow".
Three appropriate responses to the present money creation madness: (1) Invest in inflation protecting assets. Property and the stock market are already overpriced, and both will be impacted by the coming depression, (2) Borrow more debt is devalued by inflation, and (3) Stock up on provisions like long-life food before prices go up. Unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s, governments are printing money like there is no tomorrow.
Jamie Dimon: The stock market doesn't reflect Americans' pain - CNN.
Boeing's 2020 MAX cancellations near 400 in July - Reuters.
Research exposes new vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2 - Phys.org.
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "Big Stock Market Numbers!" Thereby revealing that he has no understanding of basic economic principles. Everybody stop working, and live off the stock market.
On Twitter: Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick: "Wow, lumber more than doubled in about 4 months. This isn't what you tend to see in a recession, again why this recession isn't like anything we've ever seen before.": chart.
FRED actually has a Lumber price chart back to 1926, up to June 2020 in blue. The June 2020 price is 27x higher than in Jan 1926. That is 3.6% per year, compared to official inflation of 2.9%. Even wood has exceeded the official inflation rate. Relative to CPI in red, the timber price has lagged since 2006.
The US has 166,192 coronavirus deaths out of 5.251M cases (3.2%), of which half (2.368M) are still active. The worldwide mortality rate out of closed cases is 5.3%. If 90% of those infected were not tested because they were asymptomatic, then the mortality rate is 0.5%. For the US population of 331 million, deaths would then be 1.6 million. The percentage of people who are immune and asymptomatic could be higher, otherwise the problem is far from over.
From 30 Nov 2019: Dark Energy might not exist after all - Youtube. If planets still have momentum from the big bang, they would speed up as the universe expands, due to lower gravitional pull from other heavenly bodies (astronomical objects) as the distance between them increases.
Monday 10 August 2020
Clinical trials of monoclonal antibodies to prevent COVID-19 now enrolling - NIH.
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "Increasing government spending generates a very poor multiplier effect, sometimes negatve, in open and indebted economies. The history of more than 44 countries shows that the multiplier effect is very poor in open economies, and negative in highly indebted ones." text.
Hyundai expects new family of Ioniq vehicles to drive global EV sales - Reuters.
Touched A Nerve? Trump Flips Out After Anthony Scaramucci Delivers Warning On Fox News - HuffPost. "The former White House communications director said the GOP could become “a minority party for a generation” because of Trump."
Kodak Crashes 45% After Gov't Loan Deal Placed On Hold After Recent Allegations - Talk Markets.
McDonald's sues former CEO Easterbrook over alleged relationships with employees - Reuters.
On Twitter: Stare Decisis @MsResJudicata: "Drink Fresca or Squirt? If so, you are also swallowing the latest mosquito repellent. Nootkatone, an oil found in cedar trees & grapefruits, won approval from EPA as an insect repellent. Used also as a flavor & fragrance by food & perfume industries. Don’t let the bedbugs bite."
Some think there will be no inflation as people reduce their spending due to an uncertain future. If the 25% increase in money supply leads to inflation, people will be encouraged to buy now before prices shoot up, and thereby contributing to the hyperinflation.
Kane Brown Rescued by Police After Getting Lost on His Own Property - People.
Glacier Express in Winter Snow: From Zermatt to St Moritz - Youtube.
Sunday 9 August 2020
Twitter expressed interest in buying TikTok's U.S. operations: sources - Reuters.
Why are some people with coronavirus asymptomatic — and what makes them so contagious? - Market Watch.
Guess What Happened When New York Put Homeless People In Luxury Hotels - Zero Hedge.
Hong Kong Media Mogul Arrested Over Alleged Foreign Collusion - The Hollywood Reporter.
Curry Hammock State Park, Florida Keys - SUMMER2020 Episode - Youtube.
Saturday 8 August 2020
Trump signs orders aimed at extending some pandemic relief after Congress fails to reach a deal - CNBC.
Federal government transfer payments have shot up to $4.78 trillion, which is 24.6% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of $19.4 trillion. This chart compares the transfer payments with 8.3% of GDP. The US became more socialist in 2008. Once a government starts handing out money to the public, it is difficult to take back. It is every politician's dream to have voters financially dependent on them.
Friday 7 August 2020
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "With 89% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings are down 57% over the last year, S&P 500 Sales down 12.2%. $SPX" chart.
On Twitter: Alessio Urban @AlessioUrban: "Total unemployment for July 16.8%": chart.
On Twitter: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch: "Exactly 8 years ago today ...": Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: Aug 7, 2012 "The Fed should not do another 'stimulus.' We can't keep spending our children's future away on waste."
Mark Zuckerberg tells Facebook employees he is ‘really worried’ about possible TikTok ban - SCMP. Trump must be losing young voters.
Canada to retaliate against U.S. aluminum tariffs: Deputy PM Freeland - Reuters.
US Dollar Devalues by 99% vs Gold in 100 Years—Gold Price Crosses $2,067 - Voima.
On Twitter: Jane Tang @ccjanetang: "Breaking: President Trump signs executive order on #TikTok and #WeChat" text. "NATIONAL EMERGENCY". Attack is imminent. Hunker in your bunker.
"Packaging..." - Jim Gaffigan Stand up (Beyond the Pale) - Youtube.
The US media spends a lot of time covering the jobs report, but wages have declined. The number of employees in blue have increased, but the overall Share of GDP of Employee Compensation in green declined. The series was discontinued after 2018. The Hourly Earnings relative to money supply in red have fallen from 63.3 in Jan 1964 to 14.6 in Apr 2020. When the number of workers increases, money supply needs to increase to accommodate the economic expansion. Wages would then decline relative to money supply, except the gold price suggests the increase in money supply has mostly created inflation, and not economic growth.
Thursday 6 August 2020
A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 - NEJM. "The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%])"
The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down - Time.
Trump Signs Executive Order Banning TikTok, WeChat In 45 Days - Zero Hedge.
White House Moves To De-List Chinese Companies From American Stock Exchanges - Zero Hedge.
On Twitter: Quoth the Raven @QTRResearch: "Here’s something bring up at stimulus negotiations: people are sick of watching you print $40,000 per US citizen and only give them $1200 you fucking criminals.
Apple (AAPL) is now trading on a price/earnings of $454.56/$13.15 = 35, and dividend yield of 4x$0.82/$454.56 = 0.7%. Shareholder equity per share was -$4.36 to $16.60 (almost no stored value). On an earnings yield of 2.9%, after paying 0.7% dividend, they have 2.2% left for share buybacks (they can only buy back 2.2% of the outstanding shares).
ViacomCBS class B (VIAC) television. results: Q1 revenue +65% or -12% combined, EPS from $1.17 or $1.57 to $0.77, or non-GAAP from $1.48 to $1.25. "Advertising revenue declined 27% year-over-year" "Domestic streaming and digital video revenue – which includes streaming subscription and digital video advertising revenue – rose to $489M, up 25% year-over-year". Price/earnings ~ $26.89/~4x$1.25 ~ 5.4, price/sales ~ $26.89/~4x$10.17 ~ 0.66
Europe has a heatwave, and the Southern Hemisphere has freezing cold weather. On average earth is at an comfortable temperature.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "China remains dominant producer of medical devices & pharmaceuticals ... exports have nearly doubled over past decade & U.S. is dependent on China for Acetaminophen & other chemically-related exports": chart. It looks like there is an enormous price difference between devices made in China and first world countries (due to import protection and subsidies in the latter).
Match Game PM (Episode 17) (Admiral TV) (MEGA GOLD STAR EPISODE) - Youtube.
Tattletales (October 14, 1974) - Youtube.
The FRED chart below shows US Gross Domestic Product relative to the gold price as inflation indicator. The gold price is extremely volatile, so it is difficult to see a trend. The economy is now half the size it was in 1968.
Wednesday 5 August 2020
Facebook launches TikTok-like product inside Instagram - Reuters.
On Twitter: Vincent Deluard @VincentDeluard: "Friendly reminder that the FAANMG stocks are now worth $7 trillion, more than the financial, energy, industrial, and material sectors COMBINED." chart. The stocks will fall because they can't draw such a high percentage of the money out of the economy.
Capri says Versace, Jimmy Choo sales back to normal in China, shares rise - Reuters. "... due to restrictions on traveling abroad". "Total revenue fell 66.5% to $451 million in the first quarter".
New method to help spot gastric cancer cells - MedicalXpress.
8 dead, millions without power after Isaias ravages East Coast: What we know - USA Today. These storms hit every year. Why is the electricity network not weather proof, as in underground?
On Twitter: Alessio Urban @AlessioUrban: "There you are... the V-SHAPED recovery.." chart.
On Twitter: Dan Tapiero @DTAPCAP: "Total panic by Bank of #Canada takes balance sheet up 500%! Covid deaths only 9k out of 37mm population. US #Fed balance sheet up less at 100%. #BoC overdid it. Data now strong. CB panic was global. Massive excess global liquidity drives #Gold and #Bitcoin for years to come." chart.
On Twitter: jeroen blokland @jsblokland: "In the Eurozone retail sales volume has risen to above the level of February! #Vshaped": chart. You have to divide by money supply. The official inflation rate is fake, and there is a delay from an increase in money supply to the resultant inflation.
The FRED chart below shows US money velocity in blue, and quarterly Gross Domestic Product /money supply of Australia in purple, UK in green and the Eurozone in red (velocity). For the latter three, 0.74 to 0.92 of the money in circulation produces economic output in a year, and for the US in blue it has now dropped to 1.1. It was as high as 2.7 for Australia in 1975. In the absence of an independent body to measure inflation in these countries, we have to assume that these charts show the decline in real economic output. An increase in the money supply seldom leads to a more efficient economy (otherwise Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be very prosperous). High interest rates would force people to invest in high yielding assets (not homes), which lead to a more efficient economy.
Tuesday 4 August 2020
Cheap, Cool & Crazy Electric Cars at CHENGDU MOTOR SHOW | FULLY CHARGED for Clean Energy & EVs - Youtube.
On Twitter: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1: "Airlines are becoming insolvent at a record pace. So too are retailers, with more retail bankruptcies in the first seven months of 2020 than in any other full year on record: via @joshfromalaska @theterminal": chart.
On Twitter: Reuters Business @ReutersBiz: "Ralph Lauren is getting slammed by a double whammy stemming from the pandemic - store closures and a slowdown in global demand for luxury goods $RL".
Prototype of SpaceX’s future Starship rocket flies short hop to 500 feet (video) - The Verge.
Walt Disney (DIS) results: Q3 revenue -42%, shares +0.4%, EPS from $0.79 to -$2.61, or adjusted from $1.34 to $0.08, price/earnings = $117.29/loss, price/sales = $117.29/~4x$6.511 = 4.5, total equity -3.6%, equity per share -$2.09 to $50.01.
Microchip Technology (MCHP), Information Technology. results Q1 revenue -1.0%, EPS from $0.20 to $0.48, or non-GAAP from $1.41 to $1.56, shareholder equity -1.5%. Price/earnings = $107.32/~4x$0.48 ~56, non-GAAP = $107.32/~4x$1.56 ~17, price/sales $107.32/~4x$5.081 ~5.3.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC (JAZZ) specialty biopharma. results Q1 revenue +5.2% (expects around 5.2% for the year), shares -2.7%, EPS from $4.56 to $2.06 (year expected $3.40 to $4.85), adj EPS from $4.05 to $3.71 (year expected $11.90 to $13.00), price/earnings = $110.48/~4x$3.71 ~7.4, shareholder equity per share = $56.24.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Blowout quarter for Nikola. $36,000 in revenue and -$87 million net loss. Market Cap: $13 billion. $NKLA. https://nikolamotor.com/press_releases/nikola-corporation-reports-second-quarter-results-88": table.
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "We know a handful of stocks have been largely responsible for market’s recent gains, but getting more sector-specific,
@bcaresearch notes in bottom panel that even tech sector is in bifurcated market where only a few names have driven overall gains": chart. Monopolies can't outgrow the economy. The public can no longer afford the products, for example Apple iPhones.
On Twitter: Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts: "This is probably not important. (#Sarcasm)": chart, chart.
BP slashes dividend in half after $16.8 billion loss - Market Watch.
Monday 3 August 2020
Hurtigruten Suspends Cruises After Dozens of Passengers, Crew Test Positive for Coronavirus - Travel + Leisure.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "With 75% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings down 48% over the last year, S&P 500 Sales down 12.8%. $SPX": chart.
On Twitter: Jim Rickards @JamesGRickards: "For Austrians, Monetarists and Neo-Keynesians who still think money printing causes inflation (it doesn't) here's what you're missing. The explanatory variable is velocity; it has collapsed. Fed can't control velocity. Math is easy: $7 trillion x 0 = 0. No velocity = no economy." ....
.... Velocity does not give an indication of inflation, but does suggest slower spending. Inflation must be measured by monitoring product prices. If money supply increases say +6%, and nominal economic growth is 0%, then velocity slows -6%. If inflation is 6% (equals money supply growth), then real economic growth is -6% (volume of goods traded declines 6%). People are spending more slowly because prices have risen, but their wages have not, and that is all they can afford. This makes a lot more sense than people having more money, but spending it more slowly, despite goods prices remaining the same.
On Twitter: Peter Baker @peterbakernyt: 'Trump wants the government to take a cut of the sale of Tik Tok because he says he created the value by threatening to ban it. “We think we deserve to have a big percentage of that price." ' Is Trump snorting Tik?
Before the 2016 US presidential election, Trump carried on and on about the trade deficit with China. He is again trying to gain votes by attacking China, like a Don Quixote attacking windmills, who "he believes to be ferocious giants".
Exclusive: Trump to give TikTok's Chinese owner 45 days to agree sale - sources - Reuters. What valuable personal data could possibly exist on this service?
Beijing internet court rules against Tencent, ByteDance in user data infringement cases - SCMP. "the company violated their personal information and privacy by allowing its reading app WeRead to access the user’s friend list on WeChat, and share information about the user’s reading habits with their WeChat friends". Call a state of emergency. Earth's defence shield has been breached. Martians could attack at any moment.
On Twitter: Starman @RealLifeStarman: “We are going to go to the moon, we are going to have a base on the moon, we are going to send people to mars and make life multi-planetary. This day heralds a new age of space exploration” — @elonmusk. video. Would it not be easier just to send politicians into outer space?
Virgin Galactic partners with Rolls-Royce as it looks to build an aircraft for supersonic air travel - CNBC.
Sunday 2 August 2020
On Twitter: Sam Flag of Australia @samstrades: Wow, @australian just went full bearish on the Oz banking system; if this happens, RBA and the Fed Government will need another $50-$100 billion to keep the economy from collapsing, if not more (unless virus somehow disappears) #ausbiz": text.
All day — SpaceX Crew Dragon DM-2 Splashdown coverage; splashdown scheduled at 2:48 p.m. EDT - Nasa.
Saturday 1 August 2020
SpaceX Crew Dragon DM2 Farewell Ceremony on ISS - Youtube.
On Twitter: St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed: "How much can a downturn in construction hurt the rest of the economy? Over 50% of the decline in output and 35% of the decline in employment during the Great Recession, new research suggests http://ow.ly/MagR50ANLUN" .
Comparing the Average Hourly Earnings in red, with the Wilshire 5000 stock market index in green, it is difficult to understand why workers voted for the same two political parties for the last 45 years. The official inflation rate in blue tracked wages, with a slight deviation after 2009. The suspicion is that the inflation basket is adjusted as living standards decline. When consumers spend less on goods they can no longer afford, those items are taken out of the basket.
Commentary to: email@example.com
This website is: www.aandele.co.za/AandeleVSA
Disclaimer: No responsibility is accepted for wrong information, or for losses as a result of any information on this website. The contents should not be regarded as financial advice. Website visitors should consult with their own financial advisors before reacting to information.