Wednesday 16 Sep 2020
Vitamin D and other science - Youtube. 6 Side Effects of Too Much Vitamin D - Healthline.
Saturday 12 Sept 2020
Vitamin D, Large scale studies - Youtube.
Saturday 6 Sept 2020
Vitamin D, First clinical trial - Youtube.
Saturday 5 Sept 2020
On Twitter: THE LONG VIEW Black circle @HayekAndKeynes: "A bad flu?" Weakly Deaths 1993-2020. Out of season can't be good.
Thursday 3 September 2020
Prescriptions Skyrocket For Hydroxychloroquine—A Dubious Coronavirus Treatment Endorsed By Trump - Forbes.
Saturday 29 August 2020
"Effect of Calcifediol Treatment and best Available Therapy versus best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical study" - Science Direct. "Administration of calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D to hospitalized COVID-19 patients significantly reduced their need for Intensive Care United admission." "Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease."
Thursday 27 August 2020
A 15-minute test for COVID-19 has just been approved - WEForum.
Hydroxychloroquine, evidence of efficacy - Youtube.
Sunday 23 August 2020
Covid-19 Coronavirus Can Survive On Frozen Meat And Fish For Up To 3 Weeks, Study Finds - Forbes.
There are reports that most people in some locations have antibodies for COVID-19, and are therefore immune. A Google search on the subject returns:
On every page as advert, from 24 April 2020: "Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19 - WHO.
From 21 Aug 2020: Coronavirus: 11 per cent Pakistanis have developed protective immunity against COVID-19, says study - Financial Express.
From 21 Aug 2020: Survey of India’s 9th-largest city finds COVID antibodies in 52% of the population - Fortune.
From 20 Aug 2020: 29% of Delhi has antibodies for Covid-19: Second sero-survey - HindustanTimes.
From 20 Aug 2020: NYC Releases Largest And Most Detailed Coronavirus Antibody Testing Data To Date - Gothamist.
From 19 Aug 2020: One-third of Bronx test subjects have coronavirus antibodies - The Hill.
From 7 Jul 2020: Only 5% of the Spanish Population Found To Have Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 - TechnologyNetworks.
Sunday 16 August 2020
Yinon Weiss @yinonw: "A short thread about covid herd immunity. First let's look at New York & Sweden. NY wears masks, closed business, closed schools, and mandates social distancing. Sweden did not but both reached near zero deaths at the same time. Only thing in common is similar antibody levels." chart.
Friday 14 August 2020
Some people use Sweden as example of how the coronavirus could be eliminated without lockdowns. What is strange about Sweden's statistics is that deaths peaked middle April, one month after cases started. The cases were much higher in June, but deaths continued to decline. Other countries show a similar pattern. Perhaps due to increased testing amongst healthy people, or treatment with drugs, or vitamin D, or a different strain of the virus:
From 5 Aug: Breaking News! COVID-19 Mutation: Swedish and Brazilian researchers detect SARS-CoV-2 strain with novel major mutation of spike protein - Thailand Medical. "The research also found that of the four near-complete genomes assembled from infected patients, three belonged to the one of the genetic groups that the Public Health Agency in Sweden had previously reported as having declined by late April."
Total cases in Sweden was 83,852 yesterday. If at least 10x more people were infected, but not tested because they had no symptoms, then more than 1 million could have been infected, out of a population of 10 million.
From 13 Aug: Sweden's COVID Policy Didn't Create Herd Immunity - Webmd.
Tuesday 11 August 2020
The US has 166,192 coronavirus deaths out of 5.251M cases (3.2%), of which half (2.368M) are still active. The worldwide mortality rate out of closed cases is 5.3%. If 90% of those infected were not tested because they were asymptomatic, then the mortality rate is 0.5%. For the US population of 331 million, deaths would then be 1.6 million. The percentage of people who are immune and asymptomatic could be higher, otherwise the problem is far from over.
Monday 10 August 2020
Clinical trials of monoclonal antibodies to prevent COVID-19 now enrolling - NIH.
Sunday 9 August 2020
Why are some people with coronavirus asymptomatic — and what makes them so contagious? - Market Watch.
Thursday 6 August 2020
A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 - NEJM. "The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%])"
Tuesday 21 July 2020
Is Hydroxychloroquine Effective Against Coronavirus? - Plata.
Most promising treatment so far - Youtube.
Sweden without lockdown, has tested 6.7% of the population for the Wuhan virus, and has had 558 deaths per 1 million people. They are 5th in the world for the highest number of deaths per population size. The US has tested 14.8% and has had 434 deaths per million.
Thursday 16 July 2020
On Twitter: bparker @bp_macro: "Replying to @HedgeyeDDale: "No mention of vitamin D deficiencies relating to Covid deaths? A bit surprising, seems to be the hidden variable nobody sees..." chart, chart, chart. Also explains why sunny countries have lower death rate.
Thursday 9 July 2020
COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining? - The Atlantic.
Friday 3 July 2020
Development of an inactivated vaccine candidate for SARS-CoV-2 - Science.
On Twitter: Dr. Zev Zelenko @zev_dr: "Yesterday, the Michigan study showed *late* use of HCQ + Azithromycin cut COVID deaths by 50%. Today, our study shows *early* use of Zinc + HCQ + Azithromycin cut COVID deaths by 80%. How much longer can our leaders ignore the science? Hydroxychloroquine works." table.
COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study - Preprints. "Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths."
Wednesday 1 July 2020
Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19- Internationl Journal of Infectious Diseases.
Sunday 28 June 2020
Chinese firm says coronavirus vaccine candidate shows promise in human test - Reuters.
Wednesday 24 June 2020
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "As #covid19 cases continue to spike in S/W hotspots, deaths have remained flat (opposite of NY, NJ & CT when those states saw rapid growth in cases)...reason for disconnect is unclear, but may be due to a concentration of cases within younger population
@Gavekal": chart. Perhaps people have rediscovered the sun god Ra.
Thursday 18 June 2020
There may be no immunity against Covid-19, new Wuhan study suggests - SCMP. "Only 4 per cent of 23,000 had antibodies – but they estimated at least 25 per cent could have contracted the disease"
China finds heavy coronavirus traces in seafood, meat sections of Beijing food market - Reuters.
Wednesday 17Jun 2020
On Twitter: Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko @zev_dr: "You've likely heard the only solution to the #COVID19 pandemic is to remain on lockdown & wait for vaccines. This is a lie. Big Pharma and its media don't want you to know about the #ZelenkoProtocol, and many Democrats care more about opposing Trump than actually saving lives. image.
Tuesday 16 Jun 2020
Steroid drug hailed as 'breakthrough' in COVID-19 as trial shows it saves lives - Reuters. ".... reduced death rates by around a third among the most severely ill of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital".
Sunday 14 June 2020
Coronavirus: Crematorium data prove China was lying about COVID-19 - News.au.
Coronaviruses extremely widespread in wildlife trade: study - SMH. "it illustrates how efficiently the $300 billion global wildlife trade amplifies animal viruses and brings them into contact with humans – the exact process most scientists suspect is behind the emergence of COVID-19 at a wet market in Wuhan"
Friday 12 June 2020
On Twitter: Trisha Greenhalgh @trishgreenhalgh: "New York: stay-at-home followed by mandatory face coverings in public places. Rest of USA: stay-at-home only. This virus is AIRBORNE. Washing hands + social distancing is NOT ENOUGH. It will never be enough. https://pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117": chart.
Wednesday 10 June 2020
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Four states to watch now are Texas, Florida, North Carolina & Arizona, which are experiencing sharpest rise in new reported #COVID19 infections @Gavekal @MacrobondF" chart.
Tuesday 9 June 2020
On Twitter: Bhekisisa @Bhekisisa_MG: "Men, and people who are older are more likely to die from #COVID19SA, Davies says. People with high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes are at a higher risk of dying from COVID19SA. https://bit.ly/2UsZbmn #BhekisisaWebinar": table.
Sunday 7 June 2020
With countries ending their lockdown period, the big question is what percentage of the population has already been exposed to the COVID-19 virus according to antibody tests? There appears to be a lack of recent data on the internet.A number of countries are starting antibody tests.
From 1 Jun 2020: What percentage of the population has contracted COVID-19? - Chicago Booth: "In Santa Clara, officials tested 3,330 people, of whom 50 tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies. After some reweighting to make the sample more representative of the general population, a research team led by Stanford’s Eran Bendavid estimates that 24 percent of the general population in the area was likely infected."
From 2 Jun 2020: Sweden shares preliminary figures from antibody tests - The Local SE: "Among adults aged 20-64, around seven percent had antibodies for the coronavirus... The figure among elderly people over 65 was much lower (around 3 percent) ..."
From 2 Jun 2020: Initial antibody tests indicate 200,000 Israelis have had COVID-19 report - Times of Isreal. "An initial set of serological tests, the first conducted in Israel, has indicated that some 200,000 Israelis, 2.5 percent of the population, have had the coronavirus — more than ten times the confirmed number of patients, a report said Tuesday."
Friday 5 June 2020
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Global COVID-19 Update: Reported Tests, Cases & Deaths as % of Population...": table. The cases relative population is less than 1%. The people who tested negative for virus (not antibodies) could still catch the virus. Either the virus has spread slowly, or most people have no symptoms. The number of new cases worldwide is increasing, whilst deaths are declining. This could indicate better prevention or treatment.
Monday 1 June 2020
Using Hydroxychloroquine and Other Drugs to Fight Pandemic - Yale School of Medicine.
Saturday 30 May 2020
On Twitter: jamie mcgurk @jpm25: "My wife is a healthcare worker and has gotten 3 COVID-19 tests over the last 2 months. We got the bill for the first one today: $18,415 w/o insurance." image.
Tuesday 26 May 2020
CDC Says Possibly 'Less Than Half' Of Positive Antibody Tests Are Correct - Forbes.
Friday 22 May 2020
The Remdesivir Study Is Finally Out: Drug Only Helped Those On Oxygen, Finds Mortality Too High For Standalone Treatment - Zero Hedge.
Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a
macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis - The Lancet. "We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19". Scanning superficially through the document, it looks like the medication were mainly given at an advanced stage of the sickness, judging by the higher number on ventilators (Table 2). It is supposed to be used for prevention, or at an early stage.
Hydroxychloroquine – More than 91 percent chance of helping COVID-19 patients - Ice Age Now.
Why we might not get a coronavirus vaccine - The Guardian.
Thursday 21 May 2020
A replaceable, more efficient filter for N95 masks - Phys.org.
Vitamin D3 (Cholecalciferol) and Vitamin D2 (Ergocalciferol) and Calcitriol - Youtube.
Monday 18 May 2020
Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus - BusinessWire. As of 20 March 2020 Moderna had a long pipeline of vaccines, none of which has reached Phase 3 and commercial use as yet.
Saturday 16 May 2020
One dead and more than 600 Irish meat processing workers infected with coronavirus - WSWS.
Coronavirus crisis exposes devastating conditions in the German meat processing industry - WSWS.
'Everything's on the table': How COVID-19 could change Canada's meat processing industry - Financial Post.
Counties with Meat Plants See Double the Infection Rates - Modern Farmer. Animals are striking back.
Friday 15 May 2020
Sorrento finds a coronavirus antibody that blocks viral infection 100% in preclinical lab experiments - TechCrunch.
Wednesday 13 May 2020
UK follows EU, U.S. in approving Roche COVID-19 antibody tests - Reuters.
Abbott's rapid coronavirus test misses nearly half of positive cases, study finds - The Hill.
Saturday 9 May 2020
Vitamin D dose - Youtube.
Friday 8 May 2020
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin plus zinc vs hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin alone: outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients - MedRxiv.
Wednesday 6 May 2020
The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality - Springer.
Coronavirus quickly spread around the world starting late last year, new genetic analysis shows - CNN.
Tuesday 5 May 2020
Coronavirus reached Europe weeks earlier than thought, say doctors - FT.
Pfizer, BioNTech set to begin U.S. coronavirus vaccine trial - Reuters.
Monday 4 May 2020
Vitamin D & COVID-19: The Evidence So Far - ACSH.
Scientists Create Antibody That Defeats Coronavirus in Lab - Bloomberg.
Satruday 2 May 2020
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin plus zinc vs hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin alone: outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients - MedRxiv.
Friday 1 May 2020
Pandemic Double Takes. 1918... Or 2020? - Forbes.
U.S. emergency approval broadens use of Gilead's COVID-19 drug remdesivir - Reuters. "Data released this week from a trial by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in the United States showed that remdesivir reduced hospitalization stays by 31% compared to a placebo treatment, but did not significantly improve survival."
What is noticable about the peasants who are standing in lines for food, is how much clothing they are wearing, and now their faces are also covered with a mask. To improve resistance to virus infections, people need sun exposure to produce vitamin D.
Wednesday 29 Apr 2020
MEDIA LIED, PEOPLE DIED: Italian Study Finds INCREDIBLE Prophylaxis Results for Patients on Hydroxychloroquine - The Gateway Pundit.
On Twitter: Elon Musk @elonmusk: "Hospitals in California have been half empty this whole time": chart. Thanks to the lockdown, or the sunshine.
On Twitter: Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_: "The picture on the left: a breadline in New York, 1930. The picture on the right: a food bank in Philadelphia, 2020." photo. In 1930 everybody wore a suit. Mankind is devolving back to the stone age.
Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19 - Gilead. They compared one group who took Remdesivir, with another group who took Remdesivir. No mention of a placebo group. The patients who took Remdesivir for longer took longer to recover, which suggests the medicine had a negative effect. The stock market assesses this as a positive outcome.
US deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus have reach 60 000, which is more or less the highest number for the annual flu season. What the final total will be is difficult to determine. Most the deaths have occurred over 3 weeks. The daily new cases have not shown a sustained declined yet. The spread could pick up after the lockdown, or far more people have already caught the virus, but were not recorded because they were asymptomatic.
The Anti-Mask League: lockdown protests draw parallels to 1918 pandemic - The Guardian.
Tuesday 28 Apr 2020
Coronavirus positives at Dutch farms highlight need to monitor animal spread - SCMP.
Monday 27 Apr 2020
HK scientists say new antiviral coating can protect surfaces for 90 days - Reuters.
Coronavirus: why so few deaths among Singapore’s 14,000 Covid-19 infections? - SCMP. "Meanwhile, the more vulnerable elderly population has been staying in". The question is does the elderly get enough sun exposure for the generation of vitamin D?
Sunday 26 Apr 2020
New York clinical trial quietly tests heartburn remedy against coronavirus - Science Mag. (Heartburn is a misnomer for stomach acid reflux into the esophagus).
Saturday 25 Apr 2020
Early seafarers suffered from scurvy (Wikipedia) due to a lack of vitamin C. If vitamin D plays a role with coronavirus infections, what are the consequences of a vitamin D deficiency? 8 Signs and Symptoms of Vitamin D Deficiency - Healthline:
... "Unlike other vitamins, vitamin D functions like a hormone, and every single cell in your body has a receptor for it. Your body makes it from cholesterol when your skin is exposed to sunlight. It's also found in certain foods such as fatty fish and fortified dairy products, though it's very difficult to get enough from diet alone. According to a 2011 study, 41.6% of adults in the US are deficient. This number goes up to 69.2% in Hispanics and 82.1% in African-Americans (3)."
... "1. Getting Sick or Infected Often. If you often become sick, especially with colds or the flu, low vitamin D levels may be a contributing factor. Several large observational studies have shown a link between a deficiency and respiratory tract infections like colds, bronchitis and pneumonia (5, 6). A number of studies have found that taking vitamin D supplements at a dosage of up to 4,000 IU daily may reduce your risk of respiratory tract infections (7, 8, 9). In one study in people with the chronic lung disorder COPD, only those who were severely deficient in vitamin D experienced a significant benefit after taking a high-dose supplement for one year (10)."
11 Foods to Increase Your HDL - Healthline. (Cholestrol)
Fish Consumption Per Capita - Helgi Library. Some of the countries with high fish consumption (vitamin D rich food) also have a low death rate from coronavirus, but not Spain or France.
Friday 24 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Stare Decisis @MsResJudicata: "W.H.O. says care homes could account for half of virus deaths in Europe. Half of all coronavirus-related deaths in Europe have occurred in long-term care facilities, including nursing homes, adding fuel to mounting criticism of how govts handled the virus there. Death traps!" Hospitals also spread diseases.
There appears to be five ways to fight the Wuhan coronavirus:
(1) Sunlight. It could be the Vitamin D: David Sinclair, PhD @davidasinclair: "Low Vitamin D occurs in 90% of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a common feature of advanced #COVID19 & is associated with longer time on ventilation. So: D is VIP for COVID. Links for non-docs and docs: https://tinyurl.com/uthhlpj,
(2) Natural antibacterial, antifungal and antiviral oils Tea Tree and Eucalyptus Oils. Inactivation of Airborne Influenza Virus by Tea Tree and Eucalyptus Oils. Essential Oils to Prevent the Spread of Flu: "Based on the in vitro study, nebulizing blue mallee (Eucalyptus polybractea) essential oil or tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) essential oils for 15 seconds is a fast and effective method to eliminate airborne influenza droplets within 15 minutes (Usachev et al 2013)". "Lemon balm (Melissa officinalis) essential oil has been used extensively to prevent HSV infection" (a DNA type virus).
According to Tea Tree Oil and the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus Pandemic (pdf download) - Attia: tea tree oil is not approved by the US FDA for COVID-19. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: Daily Roundup April 16, 2020 - FDA: "There are currently no FDA-approved products to prevent or treat COVID-19." A useless organization.
Effective Antiviral Activity of Essential Oils and their Characteristics Terpenes against Coronaviruses: An Update - Research Gate: "Since the new strain of coronavirus, now named SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus), is still not completely understood, it is not yet possible to find which EOs (essential oils) will offer the best level of protection. However, it is plausible to assume that some of the EOs and related terpenes are likely to offer a measurable level of defense in the same way that they do with many other known viruses."
Essential Oils and Coronaviruses - Tisserand Institute. "Tea tree (Melaleuca alternifolia) essential oil inhibits the proliferation of influenza viruses inside cells (making it antiviral), but only modestly inhibits HSV-1 and HSV-2 (Garozzo et al 2009). Tea tree essential oil was not able to inhibit proliferation of the non-enveloped viruses poliovirus 1, adenovirus 2, echovirus 9, and Coxsackie B1 (Garozzo et al 2009)". "Like influenza, coronaviruses are enveloped viruses". "The closest to an applicable study is an in vitro study examining SARS-CoV (the 2002/2003 outbreak virus) and the effect of several essential oils. The authors report that a distilled oil extracted from Laurus nobilis berries was an effective virucidal against SARS-CoV (Loizzo et al 2008)."
(3) Antiviral face masks, for example: Heiq viroblock NPJ03 antiviral textile technology tested effective against coronavirus, and O017: A novel antiviral technology for air filtration.
(4) Medicines Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin taken early, and zinc.
(5) Using antibodies from recovered coronavirus patients. From 20 April 2020: Coronavirus: Plasma treatment to be trialled - BBC.
Thursday 23 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Lori Shemek, PhD @LoriShemek: “Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical…” ~ Richard Hobday. Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandem - Medium. That could explain:
... One hundred and forty six homeless people with NO symptoms test positive for coronavirus at Boston shelter - stoking claims that virus is much more widespread than experts understand - Daily Mail.
... Testing At Worcester Homeless Shelter Finds 43% Positive For Coronavirus - Wbur. "Most of those tested in Worcester are asymptomatic or "very minimally symptomatic," according to Garcia."
New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope - Stat News.
Wednesday 22 Apr 2020
Alarmed as COVID patients' blood thickened, New York doctors try new treatments - Reuters.
Covid Vaccine - Snippet.
Coronavirus Death in California Came Weeks Before First Known U.S. Death - NY Times.
Research reveals a new malaria vaccine candidate - MedicalXpress.
Tuesday 21 Apr 2020
A new biosensor for the COVID-19 virus - Science Daily.
How coronavirus infected some, but not all, in a China restaurant - ABS-CBN.
Early USC COVID-19 Antibody Tests Shows Safer 0.1-0.3% Fatality Rate - Next Big Future. The mortality rate for flu of 0.1% (Health) doesn't agree with the number of deaths that would be expected from the population size. Is the number of flu cases also under-reported, because it is not based on antibody tests? If 0.2% of the 330M US population die of the Wuhan coronavirus, that would be 10x worse than the worst flu season.
Monday 20 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Dr Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko @zev_dr: "EXTREMELY URGENT. PLEASE RETWEET AND RETWEET AND RETWEET UNTIL WORLD TURNS UPSIDE DOWN." Treated 1450 patients with Covid19.
‘We are not the culprit’: Beijing tells US to stop blaming China for coronavirus pandemic - SCMP. No country has made any attempt to stop it being the source of infection for other countries.
Facebook Removes Some Anti-Quarantine Protest Events For Flouting Social Distancing Orders - Forbes.
Sunday 19 Apr 2020
As coronavirus cases slow, South Korea extends social distancing policy but relaxes rules - SCMP. Daily New Cases in South Korea - Worldometer. From 3 April: South Korea conquered coronavirus without a lockdown: a model to follow? - Alarabiya. People wore face masks, and are still wearing it.
Saturday 18 Apr 2020
From 6 Feb 2017: The Long Shadow of the 1976 Swine Flu Vaccine ‘Fiasco’ - Smithsonian. 1976 swine flu outbreak - WIkipedia.
Coronavirus: Japanese hospitals feel the strain of new wave of infections - SCMP.
Friday 17 Apr 2020
We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult - ABC.
44 migrants on one US deportation flight tested positive for coronavirus - CNN. The bigger question is where did the deportees depart from with such a high prevalence of the Wuhan virus. Did they pick up the virus whilst in custody? From 15 April: 75% of migrants deported to Guatemala on single flight tested positive for coronavirus: Health minister - ABC News.
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "Drive-in cinemas in South Korea are thriving after years of decline and months of restrictions on human-to-human contact due to coronavirus".
Coronavirus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists - SCMP.
Thursday 16 Apr 2020
Hundreds Coronaviruses are in China and Asian Bats, Humans are Infected All the Time - Next Big Future.
Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment - Statnews. For the purpose of ending guarantine, there remains a timing problem. Medication would be good it everybody who has the virus is treated at the same time, otherwise the virus would continue to spread, and re-infect those who have recovered. From 13 April: Early Data from Gilead’s Compassionate Use of Remdesivir for COVID-19 Looks Promising - Biospace. "That being said, about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests."
Dutch study suggests 3% of population may have coronavirus antibodies - Reuters. That is 28,158 confirmed cases out of several hundred thousand with antibodies. Looks like about 10% gets ill. That would agree with:
13 April: Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - NEJM. "Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation."
Wednesday 15 Apr 2020
Drinking alcohol can make the coronavirus worse, the WHO says in recommending restricting access - CNBC.
Does air con help spread coronavirus? Chinese study of 3 families in a restaurant suggests so - SCMP.
Tuesday 14 Apr 2020
Gilead: New Study Of Remdesivir Shows Promise - Seeking Alpha. The question is how low the probability of sickness or death must be for the public to feel safe. Another problem with treatment, as opposed to a vaccine, is that a person could be infected many times, which would require medication every time.
On Twitter: David Sinclair, PhD @davidasinclair: "Low Vitamin D occurs in 90% of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a common feature of advanced #COVID19 & is associated with longer time on ventilation. So: D is VIP for COVID. Links for non-docs and docs: https://tinyurl.com/uthhlpj,
https://tinyurl.com/uqunz8n". Is it because they haven't seen the sun for some time?
Monday 13 Apr 2020
Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery - NEJM. "Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation."
Friday 10 Apr 2020
What Immunity to COVID-19 Really Means - Scientific American.
Thursday 9 Apr 2020
Vitamin D Supplementation Could Possibly Improve Clinical Outcomes of Patients Infected with Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) - SSRN.
BioCryst Begins Clinical Trial with Galidesivir for Treatment of Patients with COVID-19 - Yahoo Finance.
Gilead Raises Number of Participants in Coronavirus Drug Test - The Street.
Tuesday 7 Apr 2020
A Virologist Explains Why COVID-19 Coronavirus Isn’t Really Dangerously Lingering On Surfaces For Weeks - Forbes.
Human testing beginning on second coronavirus vaccine candidate - The Hill. The US (Trump) is likely to first vaccinate the US population before it is made available to the rest of the world. This is going to be macabre to see what happens. There are usually 3 phases: 22 case studies where phase 2 and phase 3 trials had divergent results - FDA. From 2 April 2020: Phase 2 of coronavirus vaccine human trials may begin in spring, Moderna chairman says - CNBC. From 3 April 2020: Influenza antiviral Avigan® (favipiravir) to enter Phase III trials in COVID-19 patients - EPR.
Some media and medical professionals reject Hydroxychloroquine as unproven treatment for the coronavirus. From 3 April 2020: A small trial finds that hydroxychloroquine is not effective for treating coronavirus - The Conversation. From 1 April 2020: Excitement around hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19 causes challenges for rheumatology - The Lancet. How far the illness has progressed might make a difference. The way it is used as a malaria drug suggests taking it from the start: "Both adults and children should take one dose of hydroxychloroquine per week starting at least 1 week before traveling to the area where malaria transmission occurs. They should take one dose per week while there, and for 4 consecutive weeks after leaving." (CDC).
Considering the extreme measures required to lower the coronavirus infection rate, it seems unlikely that the virus will just disappear after the quaratine period. Until a vaccine is developed, economic acitvity will likely be limited.
France tightens rules on entering the country with new 'international travel certificate' - The Local France. In the future, countries might require coronavirus free certificates for arrivals.
How supercomputers are being used to tackle Covid-19 - TechCentral.
Sunday 5 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Hopefully a trend that will continue. Increase in hospitalizations moving down sharply in New York over the past 2 days..." chart. A drop after 2 weeks of quarantine shows it is working.
On Twitter: John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch: "NEW: Sun 5 April update of coronavirus trajectories. Daily new deaths: • US now recording more daily deaths than any country in the world since outbreaks began • UK still on similar path to Italy, suggesting ~2 weeks from peak daily deaths. Live charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest": chart.
Tesla releases first video of its ventilator made out of car parts - Electrek.
Satuday 4 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Italy has reported an average of 4,594 new COVID-19 cases over the last week, the lowest 7-day average since March 14-20." chart. The number of new cases is dropping much slower than expected after almost a month of the national lockdown which started 9 March. After two weeks of quarantine the virus should have stopped spreading.
Friday 3 Apr 2020
Cats can infect each other with coronavirus, study finds - NY Post. "And there is no direct evidence that cats would be able to infect people"
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "For most of March, Italy and Spain have been at the centre of the coronavirus storm. But their number of new cases and deaths have begun to plateau, according to Financial Times analysis https://on.ft.com/2XbWXtE": chart.
The world wide number of coronavirus cases has reached 1 million. If the growth rate declines at the same rate as the last two days, the number will peak at 2.27 million on 30 April.
Thursday 2 Apr 2020
From 30 Jul 2012: Inactivation of Airborne Influenza Virus by Tea Tree and Eucalyptus Oils - Tandfonline.
Wednesday 1 Apr 2020
On Twitter: Daniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA: "This is not a crisis due to lack of spending, but due to lack of prevention and testing. South Korea, 30% public spending to GDP: 9,887 cases, 165 deaths (52 million citizens)": chart, chart. Action should have been taken after the 2018-2019 flu vaccine was only 9% effective (CDC data shows 9% vaccine effectiveness for influenza A, virus H3N2 flu shot last year - Telegram). There was clearly a problem developing.
On Twitter: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie: "It’s a travesty that this report by the CEA published in September 2019 collected dust…" Mitigating the Impact of Pandemic Influenza through Vaccine Innovation.
Researchers target bat genes in quest for drug to combat Covid-19 - SCMP.
Coronavirus: China concealed extent of outbreak, US intelligence says - SCMP.
On Twitter: ABC News @ABC: 'NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo: "We should start looking forward to understand how this experience is going to change us—or how it should change us." I don’t think we get back to normal. I think we get to a new normal." https://abcn.ws/2yqP5ue'. Science will find a solution, and politicians will end up doing nothing to prevent future outbreaks.
From 16 Dec 2018: Essential Oils to Prevent the Spread of Flu - Tisserand Institute.
Every Vaccine and Treatment in Development for COVID-19, So Far - Visual Capitalist.
Harmless virus fights the flu by mimicking lung cells - New Atlas.
Tuesday 31 Mar 2020
Mask or no mask: the cultural assumptions at the heart of coronavirus crisis management - SCMP.
On Twitter: Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC: "It's bad. It's difficult, but it is not a calamity. Everybody can see the end whether it is the end of April or mid-May but at some point the number of new cases will decline, and everything will get back to normalcy," says Former GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz". Every month of economic inactivity is a decline of 1/12 = -8.3%, excluding essential services. What China's coronavirus experience shows is that two months is required to bring new cases down near zero. What happens then is still uncertain. People are not moving around like before. It will take economies much longer than 2 months to recover. If an economy declines -30%, and grows +3% per year then it takes 10 years to recover.
FDA authorizes use of new two-minute test kit for coronavirus - Reuters.
Dutch PM Rutte says schools, restaurants to stay shut till April 28 - Reuters.
Monday 30 Mar 2020
New York doctor touts use of hydroxychloroquine as coronavirus treatment - Al Arabiya.
On Twitter: TheStreet @TheStreet: "Breaking - J&J $JNJ identifies peak coronavirus vaccine candidate - Will begin clinical trial by September and sees vaccine available for emergency use in January"
From 7 Jan 2020: Universal flu vaccine protects against 6 influenza viruses in mice - Science Daily.
From 14 Oct 2019: An updated guide to the changing science of flu shots - Statnews. "... the first flu viruses you encounter in your life leave an indelible mark on your immune system". "The data on who gets sickest each flu season are making the pattern “very clear,” ...". "The elderly fared pretty well in the H1N1 pandemic — their immune systems recognizing it as a distant relative of a flu virus they’d encountered earlier in life."
From 15 Mar 2020: CDC data shows 9% vaccine effectiveness for influenza A, virus H3N2 flu shot last year - Telegram. "Data from the 2018-2019 flu season, the most recent set of complete information, first published in June, indicated that a flu shot to prevent influenza A, the H3N2 strain, was only 9% effective in preventing onset of the flu, among all age groups". "The overall effectiveness of flu shots last year for all types of influenza, was 29%, the CDC data shows". So, even vaccines are not effective. Could there already have been a new virus present which wasn't tested for?
Impact of sunlight on viruses
From 27 March 2020: Can you kill coronavirus with UV light? - BBC.
From 11 Feb 2020: The efficacy of vacuum-ultraviolet light disinfection of some common environmental pathogens - BMC. "Ozone producing low-pressure Hg vapor lamps emit mainly 254nm ultraviolet light C (UVC)", "20min for the influenza viruses"
From 6 March 2020: Will warming spring temperatures slow the coronavirus outbreak? - National Geographic. "High temperatures and in particular high humidity slowed the influenza spread, and at very high humidity levels, the virus stopped spreading completely." "Scientists hypothesize that low humidity, which often occurs in winter, might impair the function of the mucus in your nose, which your body uses to trap and expel foreign bodies like viruses or bacteria."
From Nov 2005: Predicted Inactivation of Viruses of Relevance to Biodefense by Solar Radiation - NCBI. Looks like it can take hours for sunlight to kill a virus.
Friday 27 Mar 2020
Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure - RFA.
A Reporter in China Explains What Life Is Like There Now - Slate. "Everyone is still wearing the masks. There’s still a lot of precautions. There’s a lot of restrictions on the mobility of people’s movements." The impact on economies could last for months.
Abbott launches molecular point-of-care test to detect novel coronavirus in as little as five minutes. "Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month". Abbott Lab's website doesn't work. Testing for the virus is useful if you test the whole population at the same moment in time, and isolate the positive cases. People who test negative today could catch the virus, and be positive next week. Alternatively you have to screen a population along a line that sweeps from one side of the country to other. Nobody should be allowed to cross the line.
On Twitter: C. Michael Gibson MD @CMichaelGibson: "So this is not a randomized trial of individuals but does it approximate a cluster randomization by Country? Is this data sufficient to make the causal inference that masks prevent new cases and flatten the curve or is it too confounded? Let’s discuss this one!": Andy @AndytweetM: "Replying to @AndytweetM @rwliu and 4 others": chart.
The US now has the highest number of recorded coronavirus cases in the world, exceeding China. The US cases increase 25% per day. In both countries the number of actual cases is probably much higher.
Thursday 26 Mar 2020
Study: Yes, half of coronavirus carriers show no symptoms - Futurism. “The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "Day 1 of #IndiaLockdown: business as usual in #AndhraPradesh. Controlling 1B people is easier said than done. This is not #Kashmir.": photo. Some are wearing face masks. The western world is following the China strategy with the lockdowns, but not wearing the face masks. After the quarantine period the virus won't disappear, and people will still need to protect themselves. It seems unlikely that the economy will suddenly recover.
Some people suggest more testing should be done for the coronavirus. If you test for the virus itself, it is useful information if a person has the virus at that moment. If the test is negative, the person could still catch it, or could have had it and is immune. You don't know. The test for antibodies is useful if you isolate those who test negative. People who have antibodies and are no longer carriers could move around freely.
On Twitter: Financial Times @FinancialTimes: "FT Exclusive: A 10-minute coronavirus test that uses technology similar to a home pregnancy kit and costs less than $1 to produce is being rushed into testing by a UK-Senegal partnership. It could be rolled out by June".
Wednesday 25 Mar 2020
High-salt diet found to hamper the immune system - New Atlas.
On Twitter: Stuart A. Thompson @stuartathompson: Trump wants everyone mingling by Easter. So @NickKristof and I worked with two epidemiologists and two mathematicians to model what could happen. New here: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html video.
From 23 March: Antibiotic resistance: the hidden threat lurking behind Covid-19 - StatReports. "Already, some studies have found that 1 in 7 patients hospitalized with Covid-19 has acquired a dangerous secondary bacterial infection, and 50% of patients who have died had such infections." That explains the combination of an antiviral and antibiotic drug: Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an openlabel non-randomized clinical trial - Mediterranee.
From 6 March: Flu strain linked to H1N1 spikes in Central Virginia - WTVR. "Influenza is notoriously difficult to build a vaccine for..." Viral and bacterial infections appear to be getting worse. People might have to permanently change their lifestyle to reduce the spread of viruses.
Response to 1918 Influenza Pandemic
The total lockdown of countries is a new approach to a pandemic. Today technology is far more advanced, but there is a lack of supply, for example face masks. Lessons Learned from the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota - NCBI :
.... 'In 1918, medical science maintained that influenza was bacterial in origin. Physicians at Fort Snelling claimed that the "bacillus influenza of Pfeiffer," which is today known as Haemophilus influenzae, was the cause of Spanish Influenza.'
.... 'Dr. Guilford believed that closing public places was the best course of action and that isolation of individual cases was useless. Dr. Simon asserted that isolation of influenza cases would be more effective in preventing the spread of disease.'
.... 'Despite Dr. Simon's conviction that the closing of public places would be ineffective, on November 6 St. Paul government officials overruled him and enacted a closing order for the whole city, including schools, theaters, churches, and dance halls. The St. Paul Citizens' Committee—consisting of 15 physicians, church leaders, and community members who were appointed by Dr. Simon—which was concerned by the record of 218 new cases on November 5, as well as 36 deaths between November 4 and November 5, 1918, recommended this policy change (Figure 1). The number of new cases began to decline 10 days later, with only 24 new cases, and the next day, Dr. Simon reopened St. Paul businesses and churches.'
.... 'by regulating the hours of retail stores, office buildings, and wholesale stores .... Buildings with fewer than six stories were no longer permitted to use their elevators ....'
.... 'Minneapolis football teams chose to ignore the ban and attempted to play against each other in front of large crowds. Police were called in to disperse the crowds and halt the games.'
... 'Dr. Bracken, of the State Board of Health, advocated the wearing of masks, though he did not wear one himself, saying, "I personally prefer to take my chances." '
.... 'Several companies requested masks to distribute to their workers. Despite the thousands of masks provided by the Red Cross, still more were needed to fulfill the demand. The Citizens' Committee suggested that companies ask their female employees to fabricate masks for all their employees.'
.... 'Clear authority and management by public health officials were generally lacking at the federal and state levels. Because clear orders were not being given to public health officials, the public in turn was not receiving transparent and consistent advice and information. Should the public wear masks? ...'
5 lessons on social distancing from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic - Vox.
Tuesday 24 Mar 2020
Open source alternative to conventional ventilators - Popular Mechanics.
What daily life during the pandemic looks like to people across the U.S., and beyond - Market Watch.
On Twitter: Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson: "Warning signDeath toll from #coronavirus surges in #NYC with deaths DOUBLING *nearly every day*, much faster than Northern #Italy (Lombardia) where hospitals are overwhelmed. #WA and #CA have less deaths, likely due to lower relative density of their populations. #COVID19 @jburnmurdoch": chart.
Coronavirus: Wuhan lockdown to end in two weeks as China gets people back to work - SCMP.
Boeing closes Seattle-area plants after worker’s coronavirus death - WSWS.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos’ message to warehouse workers: Keep working despite coronavirus threat - WSWS.
New Zealand government warns tens of thousands could die, imposes lockdown - WSWS.
On Twitter: Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing: "Italy is bending the arc and rounding the corner hopefully. For 2nd consecutive day, new #COVID19 cases lower than day before. Today's death toll (601), yesterday (651), day before (793). Let’s keep up the lockdown. Other countries pay attention." chart
On Twitter: Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders: "Recent study in @NEJM analyzed coronavirus’ survival rate on various surfaces @SoberLook" chart.
On Twitter: Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond: ' “Sunlight (solar UV radiation) acts as a principal natural virucide in the environment. UV radiation kills viruses by chemically modifying their genetic material, DNA and RNA.” Inactivation of Viruses of Relevance to Biodefense by Solar Radiation, Journal of Virology, Nov, 2005' .
After a country-wide lockdown, the question is whether people should still wear face masks. In China and Japan this is common practice, even before the coronavirus. There appears to be a lack of face masks in western countries. This might produce a different outcome.
Antiviral face masks
A face mask that blocks or kills the coronavirus is required:
From 21 March: Heiq viroblock NPJ03 antiviral textile technology tested effective against coronavirus - Heiq.
From 29 Jan: Unique new antiviral treatment made using sugar - Science Daily.
From 20 Jun 2013: O017: A novel antiviral technology for air filtration - NCBI. "Importantly, when coated on non-woven fabrics, Viroblock’s technology retains its whole antiviral property."
Antiviral Filter: 10 Pack - Bio Research
Monday 23 Mar 2020
CDC says coronavirus RNA found in Princess Cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after passengers left - CNBC. Big implication for economies. People may have to isolate for longer than 2 weeks.
On Twitter: Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis: "With my brother’s family in Spain telling me that the streets there are completely empty, except for police cars driving around to enforce quarantine, it’s a shock to think that here in Beijing we are returning to normal – and, appropriately enough, roughly 40 days after we.....went into lockdown (smart Venetians). The picture on the left is a view from my brother’s home of the boardwalk in Torremolinos, Spain, whereas the picture on the right is the view of Di’anmen Xidajie just outside my hutong. The first two weeks were the worst period for...": photo, photo. Countries that have total lockdown, and wear face masks, come out of it quickly. For other countries it might drag on.
Not only did the Israelites spend 40 days in the desert, Cliff Richards had a song titled Forty Days.
Sunday 22 Mar 2020
Florida man with coronavirus says drug touted by Trump saved his life - NY Post.
Moderna: Virus Vaccine May Be Available to Aid Workers by Fall, Wider Provision in 12-18 Months - The Street.
FDA Approves New Rapid Coronavirus Test That Can Give Results In 45 Minutes - Forbes.
On Twitter: Prof. Steve Hanke @steve_hanke: "#China being praised for sending doctors to #Rome to fight the #Coronavirus is like an arsonist being praised for trying to put out a fire he started. If it weren't for the #CCP's lies, we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place. #ChinaLiedPeopleDied": WSJ. The world failed to realize that healthy people spread the disease, and the cases shoot up later.
On Twitter: Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_: "Swiss gold refiners stop production. Ticono's state council closes Swiss refiners based in the canton due to #coronavirus."
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Time for some good news: Number of new coronavirus cases in some European Countries dropped. Most of the apparent improvement was in France and Germany. Data might indicate that the lockdown is beginning to work. (via Pantheon Macro)": chart.
On Twitter: Peter Spina @goldseek: "What can YOU do NOW? Focus on your health, your immune system! Eat nutrient dense meats, REDUCE carbs & sugar, inflammatory seed oils, reduce fear, increase sleep (big issue for me & many), etc & SUN!! Soak up those sun rays like you are a solar panel : ) Dr. Fick from Colorado": image.
Friday 20 Mar 2020
The lack of urgency to find treatments for the COVID-19, and the slow pace with which the medical profession adopt new technology in general, is ridiculous.
What you need to know about hydroxychloroquine, Trump’s new favorite treatment for Covid-19 - Vox. "And the study wasn't blinded, meaning the patients knew what they were getting, nor was it randomized." These morons want to reject a study because patients were magically cured due to the placebo effect.
Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine and other potential COVID-19 treatments explained - TechCrunch. "But the information that you're referring to specifically is anecdotal, it was not done in a controlled clinical trial." "While chloroquine has been used for decades to treat malaria, and chronic rheumatoid arthritis, it can have dangerous side effects, including death, if taken incorrectly." Some patients are dying anyway. For them there is clearly no time for trials.
Unknown date: hydroxychloroquine sulfate - Drug Summary - PDR. "Avoid coadministration of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin."
According to Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an openlabel non-randomized clinical trial existing medicine could be used to treat the coronavirus. Then the question becomes: is it better for people to still isolate and avoid getting sick, or resume economic activity and allow a percentage of the population to be sick for up to 5 days. The exact percentage of the population that becomes sick is unclear. A vaccine would be better.
Clinical trial shows HIV drugs ineffective against COVID-19 - MedicalXpress.
On Twitter: Shane @ShaneJ614 : "Hi, I’m an American living in Japan. This is my on-the-ground report of Japan’s corona situation—what the rest of the world can learn from Japan, and what Japan needs to still be concerned about.": thread. and Japan is an island. Waiting rooms where patients all sit together have always been a bad idea.
Smartphone sales plummet 40% because of Covid-19 - SCMP.
German Chancellor Merkel’s address to the nation: A declaration of criminal irresponsibility - WSWS.
Drivers shut down Detroit bus system with sick-out over health and safety concerns during coronavirus outbreak - WSWS.
The most important lesson of the 1918 influenza pandemic: Tell the damn truth - Vox.
On Twitter: Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson: "Warning signAs predicted, the number of #coronavirus cases in US is exploding with greater acceleration than *any* other country with this many cases. More #COVID19 testing is revealing the huge number of cases with more still to come. Expect a MASSIVE surge thru the next few weeks." chart.
Thursday 19 Mar 2020
California issues 'stay home' order; U.S. death toll hits 200 - Reuters.
New York University gives students 36 hours’ notice to leave dormitories, leaving many students facing homelessness - WSWS.
Trump’s 500 Million Respirators Could Take 18 Months to Deliver - Bloomberg Law.
Coronavirus will cause half of hotels to close: American Hotel & Lodging Association CEO - Fox.
Virus Crisis Forces Hollywood to Reckon With Collapsing Theatrical Windows - Hollywood Reporter.
Claims Spike - TalkMarkets.
China reports no new local coronavirus transmissions for first time - Reuters.
On Twitter: YUAN TALKS @YuanTalks: "#Xiaomi had resumed operations for more than 80% of its supply chain as of Thursday and had reopened over 1000 stores across China, said its president. The company plans to launch a new flagship 5G smartphone, the Redmi K30 Pro, at a virtual press conference on Mar 24."
On Twitter: Stare Decisis @MsResJudicata: "Protect yourself and your family. French lockdown is in effect now. No one can leave home without a form stating the reasons why they are not home. 135 euro penalty if violated. Warnings are posted everywhere. No more than 3 persons in a store and 1.5 meters apart."
The daily rate of COVID-19 infections is accelerating, to 10.4% from 8.6% the previous day. This could either be due to increased testing or spreading. The cases in China of 80,928 is only 0.0056% of the 1438M population. That is one in 18,000. Either the isolation and wearing of face masks have been very effective in controlling the spread, or the mortality rate is very low. Testing for the virus itself doesn't provide the number of people infected whose immune system has already eliminated the disease.
Wednesday 18 Mar 2020
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an openlabel non-randomized clinical trial - Mediterranee.
Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We’re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus - Daily Wire.
Special Report: How Korea trounced U.S. in race to test people for coronavirus - Reuters.
New York Nightlife Only Dropped 7% As Coronavirus Warnings Jumped, Foursquare Data Shows - Forbes.
Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China - The Guardian.
Some things will clearly need to change in the future. The coronavirus pandemic has happened at the worst possible moment, after countries have accumulated enormous debt due to incompetent and irresponsible politicians (Murphy's law). Money will be printed just like Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Ways of instantly screening passengers for specific viruses will need to be developed. Say goodbye to open-plan offices.
Tuesday 17 Mar 2020
The World Health Organization has called on countries to ‘test, test, test’ for coronavirus - this is why - Weforum.
The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 - Nature. " Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus."
Hydroxychloroquine would be effective, according to Professor Raoult of the IHU in Marseille, after a first limited test - en24.
French people ignored warnings to self-isolate. Now they need a form to leave the house. - Business Insider SA.
The coronavirus is likely to cause a deep depression, nevermind a recession. The economic impact could end quickly if (1) a cure or vaccine is found, or (2) every asymptomatic person on the planet is isolated for two weeks at the same time, and the sick people until they no longer carry the virus. For the virus to stay alive it needs new hosts, or a substance in which it can survive.
COVID-19 (Coronavirus): "Experience with SARS and MERS suggest that people are not infected with the virus through food. So, it is unlikely the virus is passed on through food and there is no evidence yet of this happening with COVID-19 (coronavirus) to date." "Coronaviruses are most commonly passed between animals and people and from person to person. The source of COVID-19 (coronavirus) is believed to be animals, but the exact source is not yet known." that is a bigger problem.
(3) To end the coronavirus through testing would require dividing the world's population in two separated groups: those who have tested negative, and those who have not yet been tested. That is if the test is for the virus itself.
These 13 companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines — here’s where things stand.
Scott Gottlieb, MD @ScottGottliebMD: "South Korea continues to show signs that its epidemic is abating, today reporting 74 new cases. Their massive testing effort aimed at identifying and isolating infected patients was no doubt a key part of their success in combatting virus, as were their early mitigation steps." chart.
The mortality rate for closed cases in Italy at 44% is much higher than China (Worldometer). Italy has done 86,011 tests by 12 March (Ourworldindata), out of a population of 60,487,000. The total positive cases were 15,113 on that date. It looks like the number of people infected but without symptoms could be large.
The number of positive cases depends on the type of test (Wikipedia). A test for the virus itself (molecular recognition) would presumably be negative if an infected person's immune system has eliminated the virus. To know the actual mortality rate for the whole population would require an antibody test (serology). "The microneutralization assay is highly specific, but significantly more labor and time intensive. Since antibodies continue to circulate even after the infection is cleared, serology tests continue to be positive for individuals who have been previously exposed and developed an immune response, which means a positive test may not indicate an active infection."
On the ship Diamond Princess 3063 passengers were tested, and 634 were found to be positive, of which 476 were 60 years and older (Eurosurveillance). So far deaths are 1% of the positive cases, and 0.19% of all 3,711 on board. If the passengers were mostly older people, then it could be 0.04% for the general population.
Monday 16 Mar 2020
While other countries lost precious time, Taiwan mobilised to keep COVID-19 at bay - SMH.
Before Trump's inauguration, a warning: 'The worst influenza pandemic since 1918' - Politico.
Spain nationalizes private hospitals to combat coronavirus outbreak - NY Daily News.
Coronavirus: China designs floating hospital to combat infectious diseases - SCMP.
On Twitter: Jack Ma v@JackMa: "Through a donation of 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks, we join hands with Americans in these difficult times." "The first shipment of masks and coronavirus test kits to the US is taking off from Shanghai. All the best to our friends in America.": image, image. Despite the US prosecuting fellow Chinese Huawei CFO.
Sunday 15 Mar 2020
New York City limits restaurants to take-out or delivery only amid pandemic - MarketWatch.
On Twitter: Richard Quest @richardquest: "The devastation to the aviation industry is going to be enormous. All the major carriers will need help from govt #avgeek no airline can withstand these pressures."
What is strangely missing from news headlines is that Remdesivir and Chloroquine is being used to treat the coronavirus, that governments are handing out face masks to the public, or delivering food so that people don't have to be exposed to the virus when they go shopping."
From 4 Feb: Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro - Nature. "Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro."
From 28 Feb: A Promising Antiviral Is Being Tested for the Coronavirus—but Results Are Not Yet Out - Scientific American.
From 13 Mar: A new paper about a Gilead drug to combat coronavirus has some analysts skittish about success - Statnews. “We continue to see a less than 50/50 possibility that the drug is ultimately proven effective.”
From 19 Feb: Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. - NCBI.
From 2 Mar: The surgeon general wants Americans to stop buying face masks - CNN.
From 4 Mar: French government steps in to regulate face masks and hand gels during coronavirus outbreak - Thelocal.fr. "President Emmanuel Macron announced that the government would requisition all stocks and distribute them to people who need them."
From 8 Mar: Australian Government secures additional 54 million face masks to contain coronavirus outbreak - Gov.au.
Saturday 14 Mar 2020
Dutch researchers first to find Covid-19 antibodies: report - NL Times. "The discovery could lead to an antiviral medication, and the ability for people to test themselves at home for the presence of the virus."
Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises - The Guardian.
Worldometers. The number of coronavirus cases is rising vertically, because countries have no way of detecting carriers unless thay have symptoms. The mortality rate for closed cases is 7%. However people who never showed symptoms were probably not recorded as a case, therefore the actual deaths per population size might be very small. The same strict limits on movement as China and face masks are required.
Sarah Abdallah @sahouraxo: "Holy moly. Massive anti-government protests in #Paris, #France today, defying #coronavirus lockdown. But barely a peep from the corporate media." photo.
Friday 13 Mar 2020
On Twitter: Maddow Blog @MaddowBlog: "How coronavirus testing works in a country that takes the problem seriously": video.
Taiwan has only 50 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak. - Business Insider SA.
How long can the coronavirus live on surfaces, can I get COVID-19 twice, and every other question you might have about the pandemic - Popular Science.
How Major Hotels Around the Globe Are Responding to Coronavirus - Travel and Leisure. People who are stuck on a trip due to travel restrictions might have to stay in hotels for longer.
Relieved Americans hug loved ones as they land in the US after scrambling to get the last flights out of Europe - Daily Mail UK.
Apple reopens all its stores in China, with shorter hours, amid signs coronavirus has peaked in country - SCMP.
On Twitter: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello: "Number of active coronavirus cases in China at lowest levels since Jan 31". chart.
On Twitter: SCMP News @SCMPNews: "Even before the coronavirus outbreak, China made about half of the world's masks. Now, it's ramped up production to over 100 million masks a day. #coronavirus #covid19"
The number of coronavirus cases is speeding up (Worldometers). At this rate it will be over a million in a month.
On Twitter: Norm Macdonald @normmacdonald: "In my very last stand-up appearance I discussed Tom Hanks Disease (THD). Take a look." video.
Thursday 12 Mar 2020
On Twitter: Zemedeneh Negatu @Zemedeneh: "Air travel just entered a dramatic phase due to the coronavirus pandemic: President @realDonaldTrump today banned all air travel from the Europen Union to the U.S., for 30 days. It’s the first time such a ban has been imposed since the Second World War."
Wednesday 11 Mar 2020
European car factories shutting as virus fears take toll - IOL.
Spain puts Madrid, Basque country on lockdown as coronavirus cases multiply - WSWS.
Tuesday 10 Mar 2020
On Twitter: Paranoid Bull @paranoidbull: "Eyes Wide Shut.": COVID-19 testing per capita.
Flawed coronavirus test strategy contributed to US spread: experts - MedicalXpress.
Massachusetts Declares State Of Emergency As Confirmed Cases Triple; Mortality Rate In Lombardy Hits 8% - Higher Than Wuhan: Live Updates - Zero Hedge. Norbert Elekes @NorbertElekes: "State of emergency due to coronavirus: - Colorado - North Carolina - Illinois - Ohio - New York - Rhode Island - New Jersey - Oregon - Iowa - Utah
- Kentucky - Pennsylvania - Maryland - Indiana - Florida - California - Washington"
On Twitter: AndreasStenoLarsen @AndreasSteno: "Expect more quarantines, more travel restrictions etc over the coming weeks.": tom @tgwtom: "Replying to @AndreasSteno via @RemiGMI": chart. For how long will the world's population need to be quarantined?
Italy quarantines entire country amid Covid-19 fears - IOL.
Judging by the results from China and other high profile countries, the coronavirus spread can be stopped with proper procedures. China has the advantage that people were already used to face masks due to pollution. The rest of the world has run out of face masks. The restriction on movements will impact the world economy. If people produce less, and central banks do not reduce the money supply, then by definition inflation will rise (when velocity picks up again).
Monday 9 Mar 2020
On Twitter: Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump: "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!" If 3.5% of the US 330 million population dies of coronavirus that would be 11.6 million.
On Twitter: Eunice Yoon @onlyyoontv: "New #China study shows #COVID?19 can spread more readily in certain conditions. Hunan province researchers found virus in air-con bus:
-traveled 4.5m (15 ft) 2x official “safe distance”
-stayed in air for 30min
Advice is masks in enclosed spaces @WHO @ScottGottliebMD @megtirrell
Sunday 8 Mar 2020
Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say - SCMP. "The “virus is highly sensitive to high temperature”, which could prevent it from spreading in warmer countries, while the opposite appeared to be true in colder climes, the study said."
On Twitter: BNO Newsroom @BNODesk: "NEW: Number of coronavirus cases in Germany hits 1,000 with more than 200 new cases so far today".
On Twitter: TalkMarkets @TalkMarkets: "Elon Musk Says Panic About Coronavirus, Which Has Killed Over 3,400, Is "Dumb" $TSLA https://talkmarkets.com/content/news/elon-musk-says-panic-about-coronavirus-which-has-killed-over-3400-is-dumb?post=253804". He thinks he can make a profit by manufacturing cars in expensive first world countries.
Taleb says Musk’s comment on coronavirus panic being ‘dumb’ is what’s dumb - Market Watch.
Live coronavirus updates: Grand Princess cruise ship to dock in Oakland; Virginia announces second case - Washington.
On Twitter: Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson: "#SouthKorea has easy access to #coronavirus tests, even drive-thrus(!), and their EARLY detection has slowed the spread. In the US, @realDonaldTrump’s task force has bungled the rollout of #COVID19 testing, and the virus has already spread to >30 states. This will cost lives."
Italy in coronavirus lockdown chaos: Desperate scramble to flee quarantine zones in north as Italian PM shuts off 16 million citizens from rest of country - after 36 people die in single day bringing toll to 233 - Mail Online. Diseases which apparently originate from China has been spreading for years with governments making no provisions to deal with it. These are the idiots the public vote into government.
Saturday 7 Mar 2020
From Nov 2017: How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America - Smithsonian.
On Twitter: Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm: "An industry segment in crisis due to fears triggered by the #coronavirus : Cruise ships lined up in #Miami this morning ... empty and with little prospects of going anywhere anytime soon." photo. Cruise ships could be safe havens if they test every passenger before embarking.
Friday 6 Mar 2020
What must be done to fight the coronavirus pandemic - WSWS.
Exclusive: The Strongest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing - The Atlantic.
It’s a ‘false hope’ coronavirus will disappear in the summer like the flu, WHO says - CNBC.
Thursday 5 Mar 2020
Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up. - NBC.
On Twitter: Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson: "⚠#Florida officials limit #coronavirus tests to people with a history of travel to a hot zone, or close contact with a #COVID19 patient over concerns that #FL’s 3 labs will be overwhelmed. No tests = NO containment. Testing capacity MUST expand NOW.🤬"
On Twitter: Martin Enlund 🦆 🚁 @enlundm: "US Case Fatality Rate from #covid19 very lofty vs other DM countries. At 7% vs the 1% average of other countries, the CFR suggests the number of cases could be massively understated. Confirmed cases may soar as wide-spread testing starts. H/T @darky999 https://twitter.com/Darky999/status/1235357072784363521": graph.
On Twitter: Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth: "Telling graphic for all those who compare COVID-19 to flu": graph.
Wednesday 4 Mar 2020
Coronavirus response may draw from Spanish flu pandemic of 100 years ago - ABC Australia.
People who are buying stocks now are delusional, particularly expensive stocks. Countries allowed the virus to spread by not testing for it. The number of cases reported appears to be function of the tests done, and not the actual number of people infected. If the figures from China is correct, they have the spread under control, due to severe restrictions, and people wearing face masks. Whether the rest of world will follow the same controls remains to be seen. Unless treatment is developed soon, the coronavirus could last for more than a year. The world economy is going down.
House passes $8.3 billion emergency coronavirus spending plan - CNBC.
US Lack of Coronavirus Tests and Testing Elsewhere - Next Big Future.
On Twitter: Norbert Elekes @NorbertElekes: "BREAKING: Los Angeles County declares coronavirus emergency with 6 new cases."
On Twitter: Investing.com @Investingcom: "CORONAVIRUS UPDATE. Germany reports 38 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 240. Netherlands reports 15 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 38. Belgium reports 10 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 23." If the virus does not have a specific source it will be difficult to isolate, unlike China.
Tuesday 3 Mar 2020
Washington State risks seeing explosion in coronavirus cases without dramatic action, new analysis says - Stat News.
On Twitter: Laurel Chor @laurelchor: "My fully-boarded flight from London to Milan. #Covid_19": photo.
Monday 2 Mar 2020
Two US deaths reported amid signs coronavirus has been spreading unchecked for several weeks - WSWS.
Sunday 1 Mar 2020
Worldometer: The coronavirus cases looked like it was going to top out, but now the rate has picked up again. Cases outside China, S. Korea and Iran is still tiny. How many countries have few or no cases because they don't test for?
Saturday 29 Feb 2020
Here Comes the Coronavirus Pandemic - NY Times.
China factory activity shrank at its fastest rate on record in February - CNBC.
Thursday 27 Feb 2020
The maker of Corona (beer) has already lost sales of R4.3 billion to the coronavirus - Business Insider SA.
Very few children have been diagnosed with the coronavirus — and experts have a few guesses as to why - Business Insider SA.
Wednesday 26 Feb 2020
On Twitter: A.Urban @AlessioUrban: "Worst than the CCP": CDC won't give details or location of latest US confirmed COVID-19 case, image.
Moderna Coronavirus Vaccine Samples Shipped - Next Big Future.
Monday 24 Feb 2020
From 4 Feb: Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro - Nature. "Our findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro."
Worldometer: The number of coronavirus cases is topping out, whilst the deaths continue to rise due to an expected delay.
Coronavirus cooperation shows how the world is getting better at hunting down disease - SCMP.
Except for hospitals spreading disease, medical technology has advanced enormously in a century. The Bubonic Plague epidemic (Black Death) from 1347 to 1351 was caused by a bacterium, of which people apparently knew little. First vaccine was developed by Edward Jenner in 1797 for smallpox. It took 90 years for Pasteur to start vaccinations in 1881. Viruses were discovered in 1892. Smallpox was the first disease to be eliminated by vaccination in 1980.
Tuesday 18 Feb 2020
Worldometer: "Coronavirus Cases: 73,437. Deaths: 1875". Every time the growth rate slows down to approach a peak, it picks up again.
Wednesday 12 Feb 2020
Worldometer: "Coronavirus Cases: 60,376. Deaths: 1369". Cases have shot up from 44,919. The same people who measure inflation appears to be deciding these statistics. The figures are probably been adjusted to avoid a situation in which more died than were infected.
Sunday 9 Feb 2020
Escaping Wuhan: Chinese-American on her evacuation from coronavirus-hit city - SCMP.
Saturday 8 Feb 2020
Coronavirus: Tesla Giga Shanghai reopening on Feb 10, Shanghai gov offers help - Electrek.
Thursday 6 Feb 2020
Coronavirus: 20 infected, thousands quarantined on Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan - SCMP.
Wednesday 5 Feb 2020
Coronavirus: cruise ship carrying 3,700 quarantined in Japan after 10 test positive - The Guardian.
Monday 3 Feb 2020
‘The results look good so far:’ Thai doctors tout promising treatment for Wuhan coronavirus - Fortune.
Worldometer: "Coronavirus Cases: 17,408. Deaths: 362". Growth rate down to 19%, mortality rate 2.1%. One can assume that a lot of cases went unreported before due to a lack of lab test facilities.
Saturday 1 Feb 2020
Worldometer: "Coronavirus Cases: 11,948. Deaths: 259". Growth rate has slowed to 22%, mortality rate 2.2%.
Thursday 30 Jan 2020
7,000 people held on cruise ship in Italy as Wuhan coronavirus fears spread - CNN.
Coronavirus outbreak: The countries affected - Parmaceutical Technology. "A total of 7,783 (7,678 cases in mainland China and 104 cases outside China) confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection including 170 deaths have been reported across the world as of 29 January 2020."
On Twitter:Lijian Zhao @zlj517: "Updates: Latest video on the construction progress of the first #Coronavirus hospital or #Huoshenshan hospital in #Wuhan. @CSCECNEWS" video. Amazing what can be achieved without the burocracy of a democratic government.
Tuesday 28 Jan 2020
Coronavirus: China death toll climbs to 106 with first fatality in Beijing – live updates - The Gaurdian. Confirmed cases 4515.
If the corona virus does spread worldwide, that will have a big impact on all economies not due to the virus infections, but the people avoiding public places, and staying home.
Monday 27 Jan 2020
On Twitter: Investing.com @Investingcom: China #Coronavirus Cases:
Jan. 17: 41
Jan. 19: 62
Jan. 20: 201
Jan. 21: 291
Jan. 22: 440
Jan. 24: 830
Jan. 25: 1,287
Jan. 26: 1,975
Jan. 27: 2,835
Wuhan was quarantined 22 January. People were probably infected before preventative measures started, since the incubation period varies from 2 to 14 days. How many labs can test for the virus?
From 24 Jan 2020: Coronavirus Detection Test in the Works for Wuhan - Genengnews.
From 25 Jan 2020: Singapore biotech firm Veredus expects to have Wuhan virus test by Feb 1 - The Business Times.
On Twitter: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV: "Coronavirus updates: - China says death toll at least 80 (from 56), confirmed cases rose to 2,744
- U.S. confirms fifth case, - Taiwan confirms fourth case, - China to extend new year holiday past January 30"
Do viruses originate in China because of lower resistance? Differential Mortality Rates by Ethnicity in 3 Influenza Pandemics Over a Century, New Zealand - NCBI. "The Maori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Maori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Maori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3)." U.S. Influenza (Flu) and Pneumonia Death Statistics - Livestories. Asian or Pacific Islanders had lower deaths. Influenza-Associated Pediatric Deaths
in the United States, 2010–2016 - Pediatrics AAP Publications. Deaths per 100,000 chidren was the same for White and Asian Americans, but 4.9x higher for Native Hawaiian and/or Pacific Islander.
Sunday 26 Jan 2020
On Twitter: "Global Times @globaltimesnews: "#Breaking: 33 out of 585 samples collected from a Wuhan seafood market tested positive for the novel coronavirus, suggesting the virus originated in wildlife sold there, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention told CCTV. #WuhanCoronavirus"
On Twitter: Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner: "Just to put things into perspective: The Coronavirus epidemic has a likely huge impact on tourism from #China to the rest of the world, ADMISI's Ostwald says.": chart.
N95 Virus Masks Sell Out Across The U.S. - Zero Hedge.
The fatality rate for SARS was 9.5%, MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus) was 34% (WHO, Wikipedia), and so far for Wuhan coronavirus 2.8%. The number of infections for all coronaviruses has been tiny compared to the world population.
Saturday 25 Jan 2020
Transmission of communicable diseases on aircraft - WHO. "The recirculated air is usually passed through HEPA (high-efficiency particulate air) filters, of the type used in hospital operating theatres and intensive care units, which trap dust particles, bacteria, fungi and viruses." Study examines how diseases really spread during air travel - Pri.
Friday 24 Jan 2020
China coronavirus: A visual guide - BBC.
Coronavirus claims 15 more lives in China; first three cases reported in Europe; first case reported in Australia; 2 cases confirmed in U.S. - Washingon Post.
Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China - The Lancet.
On Twitter: Eunice Yoon @onlyyoontv: "China restricts 16 cities pop. 46mln!" That is only 3% of the population.
Thursday 23 Jan 2020
Spreading Coronavirus Forces Lockdown of More Chinese Cities - WSJ.
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